Preseason Rankings
Charlotte
American Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#156
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace55.8#361
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#193
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#136
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.4% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 13.8
.500 or above 47.8% 53.0% 25.3%
.500 or above in Conference 45.6% 48.9% 31.2%
Conference Champion 2.4% 2.8% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.9% 7.3% 15.9%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
First Round2.7% 3.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 81.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 42 - 7
Quad 35 - 66 - 13
Quad 47 - 213 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 264   Maine W 66-57 81%    
  Nov 10, 2023 84   Liberty L 57-63 31%    
  Nov 15, 2023 164   Utah Valley W 66-63 62%    
  Nov 19, 2023 139   George Mason L 61-62 46%    
  Nov 25, 2023 206   Georgia St. W 65-59 70%    
  Nov 29, 2023 149   Davidson W 62-59 59%    
  Dec 05, 2023 207   Stetson W 67-61 69%    
  Dec 09, 2023 3   @ Duke L 51-71 4%    
  Dec 16, 2023 129   @ Richmond L 58-63 35%    
  Dec 29, 2023 207   @ Stetson L 63-64 50%    
  Jan 02, 2024 101   @ SMU L 61-68 29%    
  Jan 06, 2024 25   Florida Atlantic L 60-69 23%    
  Jan 10, 2024 233   Tulsa W 67-60 73%    
  Jan 13, 2024 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 67-65 58%    
  Jan 16, 2024 178   @ Rice L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 20, 2024 90   North Texas L 52-54 44%    
  Jan 23, 2024 77   UAB L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 27, 2024 99   @ Tulane L 66-73 29%    
  Feb 03, 2024 146   East Carolina W 64-62 58%    
  Feb 06, 2024 145   @ South Florida L 61-65 38%    
  Feb 11, 2024 138   @ Temple L 59-63 36%    
  Feb 15, 2024 249   Texas San Antonio W 70-62 76%    
  Feb 18, 2024 95   Wichita St. L 61-62 47%    
  Feb 21, 2024 27   @ Memphis L 60-75 11%    
  Feb 24, 2024 233   @ Tulsa W 64-63 55%    
  Mar 02, 2024 145   South Florida W 64-62 57%    
  Mar 06, 2024 178   Rice W 69-65 63%    
  Mar 09, 2024 146   @ East Carolina L 61-65 38%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.1 2.5 0.5 0.1 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.0 0.6 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 4.4 1.5 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.4 0.2 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.0 0.9 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.9 1.4 0.1 8.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.9 13th
14th 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.1 14th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.8 6.0 8.1 10.0 11.5 11.7 11.3 10.2 8.3 6.5 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.5% 0.3    0.2 0.0
16-2 78.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 54.3% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 23.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 89.0% 5.5% 83.6% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.4%
17-1 0.3% 75.4% 20.0% 55.5% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 69.3%
16-2 0.6% 48.9% 12.6% 36.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 41.5%
15-3 1.4% 28.5% 12.6% 15.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 18.2%
14-4 2.6% 12.2% 6.9% 5.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 5.6%
13-5 4.4% 7.4% 5.7% 1.7% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.1 1.8%
12-6 6.5% 5.6% 5.3% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.2 0.3%
11-7 8.3% 3.4% 3.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0%
10-8 10.2% 2.0% 2.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0
9-9 11.3% 1.8% 1.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.1
8-10 11.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.5
7-11 11.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.5
6-12 10.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.9
5-13 8.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.1
4-14 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.0
3-15 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.0% 2.2% 0.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 97.0 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%