Preseason Rankings
East Carolina
American Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#146
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#170
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#159
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#138
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.1% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 13.3
.500 or above 63.5% 67.7% 37.7%
.500 or above in Conference 41.8% 44.4% 26.2%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.3% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 9.1% 8.0% 16.4%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.2%
First Round3.4% 3.7% 1.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 86.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 42 - 7
Quad 35 - 57 - 12
Quad 49 - 216 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 294   Campbell W 73-61 86%    
  Nov 15, 2023 273   South Carolina Upstate W 76-65 83%    
  Nov 19, 2023 228   Northeastern W 73-65 76%    
  Nov 20, 2023 229   Georgia Southern W 72-64 76%    
  Nov 21, 2023 204   Kennesaw St. W 75-69 72%    
  Nov 25, 2023 139   @ George Mason L 67-70 39%    
  Nov 30, 2023 140   UNC Wilmington W 69-66 59%    
  Dec 04, 2023 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 77-61 92%    
  Dec 09, 2023 89   South Carolina L 67-68 46%    
  Dec 14, 2023 36   Florida L 67-77 20%    
  Dec 20, 2023 355   Delaware St. W 78-60 94%    
  Dec 29, 2023 239   East Tennessee St. W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 02, 2024 25   @ Florida Atlantic L 65-79 12%    
  Jan 07, 2024 233   Tulsa W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 10, 2024 138   @ Temple L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 13, 2024 101   SMU W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 17, 2024 90   North Texas L 58-59 47%    
  Jan 20, 2024 77   @ UAB L 71-79 24%    
  Jan 24, 2024 95   @ Wichita St. L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 28, 2024 138   Temple W 70-67 58%    
  Jan 31, 2024 145   South Florida W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 03, 2024 156   @ Charlotte L 62-64 42%    
  Feb 10, 2024 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 15, 2024 95   Wichita St. L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 18, 2024 99   Tulane L 78-79 50%    
  Feb 24, 2024 178   @ Rice L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 29, 2024 27   Memphis L 72-80 26%    
  Mar 03, 2024 90   @ North Texas L 55-62 28%    
  Mar 06, 2024 101   @ SMU L 69-75 32%    
  Mar 09, 2024 156   Charlotte W 65-61 62%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.6 0.8 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 4.3 1.4 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.4 0.4 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.2 0.9 0.0 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.3 1.4 0.1 9.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.8 1.6 0.2 9.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.0 13th
14th 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.1 14th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.7 6.8 8.8 10.5 11.7 11.8 10.8 9.7 7.6 6.0 3.6 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 93.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 80.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 51.2% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 27.1% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 74.1% 41.4% 32.8% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.9%
17-1 0.1% 97.3% 28.9% 68.5% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.2%
16-2 0.5% 76.8% 22.3% 54.5% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 70.1%
15-3 1.1% 37.2% 14.0% 23.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 26.9%
14-4 2.4% 22.4% 10.0% 12.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8 13.8%
13-5 3.6% 12.4% 8.8% 3.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 4.0%
12-6 6.0% 7.5% 7.1% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.5%
11-7 7.6% 4.2% 4.1% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.3 0.1%
10-8 9.7% 3.4% 3.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.4 0.0%
9-9 10.8% 2.2% 2.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.6
8-10 11.8% 1.5% 1.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.6
7-11 11.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6
6-12 10.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.5
5-13 8.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 8.7
4-14 6.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.8
3-15 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
2-16 2.5% 2.5
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.7% 2.6% 1.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 96.3 1.1%