Preseason Rankings
Kennesaw St.
Atlantic Sun
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#204
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#125
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#220
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#199
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 15.1% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.3 14.2
.500 or above 48.5% 73.1% 44.2%
.500 or above in Conference 63.8% 78.2% 61.3%
Conference Champion 11.7% 19.7% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 1.7% 5.7%
First Four1.2% 0.9% 1.3%
First Round8.3% 14.7% 7.2%
Second Round0.8% 2.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 14.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 410 - 513 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 85   @ Florida St. L 69-80 15%    
  Nov 19, 2023 229   Georgia Southern W 71-69 55%    
  Nov 20, 2023 228   Northeastern W 71-69 55%    
  Nov 21, 2023 146   @ East Carolina L 69-75 28%    
  Nov 26, 2023 196   @ Florida International L 73-77 37%    
  Dec 02, 2023 206   Georgia St. W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 05, 2023 170   UNC Asheville W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 09, 2023 273   @ South Carolina Upstate W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 16, 2023 322   @ Presbyterian W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 23, 2023 170   @ UNC Asheville L 70-75 34%    
  Dec 29, 2023 39   @ Indiana L 64-80 9%    
  Jan 06, 2024 224   Queens W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 10, 2024 207   Stetson W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 12, 2024 159   Florida Gulf Coast W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 18, 2024 280   @ North Florida W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 20, 2024 246   @ Jacksonville L 62-63 49%    
  Jan 24, 2024 223   North Alabama W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 27, 2024 336   @ Central Arkansas W 82-76 69%    
  Feb 01, 2024 215   Bellarmine W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 03, 2024 134   Eastern Kentucky L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 08, 2024 236   @ Austin Peay L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 10, 2024 184   @ Lipscomb L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 14, 2024 246   Jacksonville W 65-59 68%    
  Feb 16, 2024 280   North Florida W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 22, 2024 159   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 69-75 32%    
  Feb 24, 2024 207   @ Stetson L 71-74 41%    
  Mar 01, 2024 224   @ Queens L 75-77 45%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.5 2.8 1.5 0.4 11.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.7 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.1 4.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.9 4.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.9 5.0 1.5 0.1 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.9 2.1 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.4 2.7 0.2 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.9 1.0 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.9 0.8 0.1 4.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.6 7.0 9.1 10.9 11.6 12.3 11.4 10.0 8.1 5.4 3.1 1.5 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 99.4% 1.5    1.4 0.1
14-2 89.8% 2.8    2.3 0.5 0.0
13-3 64.4% 3.5    1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0
12-4 32.3% 2.6    0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-5 7.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 6.8 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 61.5% 57.4% 4.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.6%
15-1 1.5% 45.6% 44.2% 1.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 2.6%
14-2 3.1% 34.3% 34.0% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.5%
13-3 5.4% 26.2% 26.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.0
12-4 8.1% 19.1% 19.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 6.6
11-5 10.0% 12.4% 12.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 8.7
10-6 11.4% 8.6% 8.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 10.4
9-7 12.3% 5.4% 5.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 11.6
8-8 11.6% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.1
7-9 10.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.7
6-10 9.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.9
5-11 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.9
4-12 4.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.5
3-13 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-14 1.4% 1.4
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.9% 8.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.7 91.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%