Preseason Rankings
Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-10.7#336
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.1#8
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#285
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-7.2#353
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 5.2% 14.3% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 9.5% 17.9% 7.8%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 49.3% 36.2% 52.0%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 17.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 47 - 98 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 233   @ Tulsa L 74-84 17%    
  Nov 13, 2023 346   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-78 65%    
  Nov 17, 2023 87   @ Vanderbilt L 69-88 4%    
  Nov 20, 2023 308   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 82-88 30%    
  Nov 22, 2023 32   @ Kansas St. L 68-94 1%    
  Nov 25, 2023 315   Eastern Michigan W 82-81 53%    
  Nov 26, 2023 299   New Orleans L 85-86 50%    
  Nov 29, 2023 116   @ Loyola Marymount L 71-88 7%    
  Dec 03, 2023 142   @ Hawaii L 65-80 9%    
  Dec 07, 2023 275   Arkansas Little Rock L 84-86 45%    
  Dec 10, 2023 332   @ Eastern Illinois L 76-79 39%    
  Dec 20, 2023 317   Western Illinois W 78-77 53%    
  Dec 28, 2023 53   @ Oklahoma L 63-86 2%    
  Dec 30, 2023 52   @ Missouri L 71-94 2%    
  Jan 06, 2024 223   @ North Alabama L 75-86 19%    
  Jan 11, 2024 134   Eastern Kentucky L 79-89 20%    
  Jan 13, 2024 215   Bellarmine L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 18, 2024 184   @ Lipscomb L 75-88 14%    
  Jan 20, 2024 236   @ Austin Peay L 70-80 20%    
  Jan 24, 2024 224   @ Queens L 77-88 19%    
  Jan 27, 2024 204   Kennesaw St. L 76-82 31%    
  Feb 01, 2024 159   Florida Gulf Coast L 74-82 24%    
  Feb 03, 2024 207   Stetson L 75-81 32%    
  Feb 08, 2024 246   @ Jacksonville L 63-72 23%    
  Feb 10, 2024 280   @ North Florida L 78-85 27%    
  Feb 15, 2024 236   Austin Peay L 73-77 38%    
  Feb 17, 2024 184   Lipscomb L 78-85 29%    
  Feb 22, 2024 215   @ Bellarmine L 67-78 18%    
  Feb 24, 2024 134   @ Eastern Kentucky L 76-92 10%    
  Mar 01, 2024 223   North Alabama L 78-83 35%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.4 1.8 0.2 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 4.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 5.2 5.0 1.1 0.0 13.0 10th
11th 0.8 3.9 7.4 6.5 1.9 0.1 20.5 11th
12th 5.8 11.1 11.1 6.6 1.8 0.2 36.6 12th
Total 5.8 11.9 15.2 15.6 14.5 12.2 9.0 6.3 4.2 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-2 90.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 82.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-4 37.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 8.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.0% 59.3% 59.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.0% 22.0% 22.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 9.8% 9.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.4% 5.7% 5.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 0.7% 5.1% 5.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-6 1.5% 4.4% 4.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
9-7 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.6
8-8 4.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.2
7-9 6.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.3
6-10 9.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.0
5-11 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.1
4-12 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
3-13 15.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
2-14 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.2
1-15 11.9% 11.9
0-16 5.8% 5.8
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%