Preseason Rankings
Hawaii
Big West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#142
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.9#310
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#228
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#87
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 16.7% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.7
.500 or above 80.3% 85.5% 62.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.1% 82.3% 68.3%
Conference Champion 18.1% 20.3% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.0% 2.8%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
First Round14.5% 16.3% 8.1%
Second Round2.8% 3.3% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 45 - 7
Quad 411 - 316 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 22, 2023 231   Northern Arizona W 71-63 77%    
  Nov 24, 2023 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-68 75%    
  Nov 30, 2023 62   @ Utah L 59-69 19%    
  Dec 03, 2023 336   Central Arkansas W 80-65 91%    
  Dec 17, 2023 79   Nevada L 64-66 43%    
  Dec 21, 2023 174   Portland W 73-68 66%    
  Dec 31, 2023 161   Cal St. Fullerton W 65-61 64%    
  Jan 04, 2024 254   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 62-58 62%    
  Jan 06, 2024 316   @ Cal St. Northridge W 67-60 73%    
  Jan 12, 2024 97   UC Irvine L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 14, 2024 202   UC Riverside W 68-62 71%    
  Jan 18, 2024 141   @ Long Beach St. L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 20, 2024 241   @ UC San Diego W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 26, 2024 150   UC Santa Barbara W 66-62 62%    
  Jan 28, 2024 334   Cal Poly W 67-52 90%    
  Feb 01, 2024 161   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 62-64 44%    
  Feb 03, 2024 97   @ UC Irvine L 64-70 31%    
  Feb 09, 2024 241   UC San Diego W 71-62 77%    
  Feb 11, 2024 173   UC Davis W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 15, 2024 334   @ Cal Poly W 64-55 78%    
  Feb 17, 2024 150   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-65 42%    
  Feb 25, 2024 141   Long Beach St. W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 29, 2024 173   @ UC Davis L 68-69 46%    
  Mar 02, 2024 202   @ UC Riverside W 65-64 52%    
  Mar 07, 2024 316   Cal St. Northridge W 70-57 86%    
  Mar 10, 2024 254   Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-55 78%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 4.5 4.5 3.3 1.7 0.5 18.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 5.3 3.5 1.0 0.2 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.0 4.3 1.6 0.3 14.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.9 0.8 0.1 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.8 5.1 6.5 8.6 9.6 10.8 10.9 10.3 9.5 8.2 5.6 3.5 1.7 0.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.6 0.0
18-2 95.5% 3.3    2.9 0.4 0.0
17-3 81.5% 4.5    3.4 1.1 0.0
16-4 54.5% 4.5    2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 27.5% 2.6    0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.9% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.1% 18.1 12.0 4.7 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 89.8% 64.8% 25.0% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.0%
19-1 1.7% 68.3% 57.0% 11.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 26.3%
18-2 3.5% 50.6% 47.1% 3.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.7 6.5%
17-3 5.6% 35.9% 35.0% 0.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.6 1.3%
16-4 8.2% 28.5% 28.4% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.8 0.2%
15-5 9.5% 21.4% 21.4% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.5
14-6 10.3% 15.7% 15.7% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 8.7
13-7 10.9% 11.7% 11.7% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 9.6
12-8 10.8% 9.5% 9.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 9.8
11-9 9.6% 5.9% 5.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.0
10-10 8.6% 3.8% 3.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.3
9-11 6.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.4
8-12 5.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.0
7-13 3.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.8
6-14 2.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-15 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-16 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.8% 14.3% 0.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.5 3.3 3.8 2.7 1.6 1.0 85.2 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 92.5% 4.5 7.5 7.9 12.8 19.4 22.5 11.5 4.4 3.5 3.1