Preseason Rankings
UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#150
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.1#307
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#135
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#182
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 14.2% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.0 12.8 13.8
.500 or above 75.2% 81.8% 57.9%
.500 or above in Conference 75.6% 79.7% 64.8%
Conference Champion 15.2% 17.6% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.2% 3.0%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.8%
First Round12.1% 13.9% 7.4%
Second Round2.1% 2.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 9
Quad 411 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 211   Portland St. W 78-72 72%    
  Nov 13, 2023 155   @ UTEP L 65-68 40%    
  Nov 19, 2023 362   Le Moyne W 80-56 98%    
  Nov 27, 2023 111   @ Fresno St. L 61-67 31%    
  Nov 29, 2023 231   Northern Arizona W 74-66 75%    
  Dec 06, 2023 55   @ New Mexico L 70-81 17%    
  Dec 16, 2023 116   Loyola Marymount L 69-71 43%    
  Dec 20, 2023 247   Howard W 77-68 77%    
  Dec 28, 2023 173   @ UC Davis L 70-72 44%    
  Dec 30, 2023 202   @ UC Riverside L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 04, 2024 241   UC San Diego W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 06, 2024 334   @ Cal Poly W 67-58 77%    
  Jan 11, 2024 254   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-58 78%    
  Jan 13, 2024 141   Long Beach St. W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 18, 2024 316   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 20, 2024 161   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-64 62%    
  Jan 26, 2024 142   @ Hawaii L 62-66 38%    
  Feb 01, 2024 173   UC Davis W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 03, 2024 254   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 64-61 60%    
  Feb 08, 2024 97   UC Irvine L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 10, 2024 316   Cal St. Northridge W 72-59 85%    
  Feb 15, 2024 241   @ UC San Diego W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 17, 2024 142   Hawaii W 65-63 58%    
  Feb 22, 2024 97   @ UC Irvine L 66-73 29%    
  Feb 29, 2024 334   Cal Poly W 70-55 89%    
  Mar 02, 2024 161   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 65-67 42%    
  Mar 07, 2024 141   @ Long Beach St. L 74-78 39%    
  Mar 09, 2024 202   UC Riverside W 71-65 69%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.9 3.7 2.6 1.2 0.5 15.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.3 4.9 2.8 0.9 0.1 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.8 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.9 3.3 1.0 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.4 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.1 1.0 0.1 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.5 5.9 7.7 8.8 10.4 10.7 10.5 10.2 9.0 7.0 4.6 2.7 1.2 0.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 96.2% 2.6    2.3 0.3 0.0
17-3 80.4% 3.7    2.8 0.9 0.0
16-4 56.5% 3.9    2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 26.8% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.3% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 9.9 4.1 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 81.5% 62.9% 18.7% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 50.3%
19-1 1.2% 65.4% 54.6% 10.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 23.8%
18-2 2.7% 48.2% 44.9% 3.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.0%
17-3 4.6% 34.0% 33.3% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 1.0%
16-4 7.0% 27.0% 26.9% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 5.1 0.2%
15-5 9.0% 19.2% 19.2% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.3
14-6 10.2% 15.3% 15.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.7
13-7 10.5% 9.9% 9.9% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 9.5
12-8 10.7% 7.7% 7.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.9
11-9 10.4% 6.3% 6.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.7
10-10 8.8% 3.3% 3.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.5
9-11 7.7% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.4
8-12 5.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.8
7-13 4.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.4
6-14 2.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-15 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.4% 12.1% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.1 2.6 1.5 0.9 87.6 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.8 0.7 29.3 15.0 22.4 15.0 17.0 0.7