Preseason Rankings
Portland St.
Big Sky
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#211
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.1#7
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#187
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#235
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 15.8% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.8 14.5
.500 or above 55.9% 74.2% 48.4%
.500 or above in Conference 66.9% 77.2% 62.7%
Conference Champion 13.5% 19.5% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 1.8% 4.8%
First Four1.5% 1.3% 1.6%
First Round10.4% 15.2% 8.4%
Second Round0.9% 1.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 29.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 411 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 166   @ Air Force L 68-74 29%    
  Nov 09, 2023 150   @ UC Santa Barbara L 72-78 28%    
  Nov 17, 2023 186   @ California Baptist L 70-74 34%    
  Nov 18, 2023 334   Cal Poly W 73-65 78%    
  Nov 19, 2023 276   St. Thomas W 79-75 64%    
  Nov 28, 2023 174   Portland W 83-82 53%    
  Dec 02, 2023 86   @ Washington St. L 67-78 16%    
  Dec 15, 2023 227   @ San Diego L 80-82 44%    
  Dec 18, 2023 111   @ Fresno St. L 67-76 22%    
  Dec 28, 2023 169   @ Eastern Washington L 78-83 32%    
  Dec 30, 2023 354   @ Idaho W 80-72 75%    
  Jan 06, 2024 286   @ UMKC W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 11, 2024 290   Idaho St. W 78-70 74%    
  Jan 13, 2024 160   Weber St. W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 18, 2024 231   @ Northern Arizona L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 20, 2024 251   @ Northern Colorado L 81-82 48%    
  Jan 25, 2024 181   Montana W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 27, 2024 225   Montana St. W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 03, 2024 252   Sacramento St. W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 05, 2024 169   Eastern Washington W 81-80 52%    
  Feb 08, 2024 160   @ Weber St. L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 10, 2024 290   @ Idaho St. W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 15, 2024 251   Northern Colorado W 84-78 68%    
  Feb 17, 2024 231   Northern Arizona W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 22, 2024 225   @ Montana St. L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 24, 2024 181   @ Montana L 71-76 35%    
  Mar 02, 2024 252   @ Sacramento St. L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 04, 2024 354   Idaho W 83-69 87%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.6 3.5 2.4 1.0 0.2 13.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 4.8 2.8 0.8 0.1 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.6 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.1 4.1 1.2 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.0 3.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 3.5 0.6 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.2 5.9 8.3 9.6 11.0 11.6 10.8 10.2 8.6 6.6 4.3 2.5 1.0 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 96.4% 2.4    2.1 0.3
15-3 81.7% 3.5    2.6 0.9 0.0
14-4 54.0% 3.6    1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 24.1% 2.1    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1
12-6 6.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.5% 13.5 8.4 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 72.0% 68.4% 3.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.4%
17-1 1.0% 55.6% 53.8% 1.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3.8%
16-2 2.5% 48.8% 48.6% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.4%
15-3 4.3% 36.2% 36.2% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.7 0.0%
14-4 6.6% 26.0% 26.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 4.9
13-5 8.6% 19.7% 19.7% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 6.9
12-6 10.2% 13.5% 13.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 8.9
11-7 10.8% 8.7% 8.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 9.9
10-8 11.6% 7.1% 7.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 10.8
9-9 11.0% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.5
8-10 9.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.4
7-11 8.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.1
6-12 5.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.9
5-13 4.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.2
4-14 2.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.1% 11.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 88.9 0.0%