Preseason Rankings
Big Sky
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
160 Weber St. 22.9%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 6 +0.6      -0.7 206 +1.3 132 63.8 289 0.0 1 0.0 1
169 Eastern Washington 19.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 7 +0.2      +1.9 120 -1.7 227 70.9 109 0.0 1 0.0 1
181 Montana 16.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -0.6      +0.8 148 -1.3 217 61.1 337 0.0 1 0.0 1
211 Portland St. 11.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -2.2      -0.3 187 -1.9 235 79.1 7 0.0 1 0.0 1
225 Montana St. 8.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -3.3      -2.7 261 -0.6 192 66.2 227 0.0 1 0.0 1
231 Northern Arizona 7.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 9 - 9 -3.5      0.0 172 -3.5 282 67.2 202 0.0 1 0.0 1
251 Northern Colorado 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -4.8      -0.8 209 -4.0 298 72.6 64 0.0 1 0.0 1
252 Sacramento St. 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -4.9      -2.4 253 -2.5 252 59.1 352 0.0 1 0.0 1
290 Idaho St. 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -6.9      -4.1 300 -2.8 259 64.0 285 0.0 1 0.0 1
354 Idaho 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 23 4 - 14 -13.1      -5.8 333 -7.3 356 65.5 254 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Weber St. 3.3 27.6 18.8 14.5 11.1 8.9 7.1 5.4 3.6 2.3 0.7
Eastern Washington 3.5 25.7 18.1 14.7 11.4 9.3 7.6 5.8 4.2 2.5 0.9
Montana 3.8 20.9 17.2 14.8 12.1 10.4 8.6 6.7 4.9 3.3 1.2
Portland St. 4.5 13.5 13.4 13.3 12.5 11.9 10.9 9.3 7.7 5.3 2.2
Montana St. 5.0 9.7 11.0 12.1 11.9 12.1 11.8 10.8 9.6 7.6 3.5
Northern Arizona 5.1 9.6 10.5 11.6 11.8 11.7 12.1 11.3 10.0 7.8 3.5
Northern Colorado 5.7 6.5 8.1 9.3 10.2 11.4 12.5 12.5 12.7 11.2 5.5
Sacramento St. 5.7 6.2 7.5 9.5 10.7 11.7 12.3 12.8 12.5 11.1 5.7
Idaho St. 6.6 2.9 4.7 6.3 8.0 9.6 11.1 13.5 16.0 17.5 10.4
Idaho 8.9 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.5 4.1 6.5 11.3 21.1 51.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Weber St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.0 4.4 6.3 8.0 9.9 11.2 12.2 11.8 10.8 8.6 6.1 3.4 1.0
Eastern Washington 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.2 3.2 4.9 6.8 8.2 10.2 11.3 12.1 11.8 10.0 8.4 5.5 2.9 0.8
Montana 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.0 5.6 7.8 9.1 11.0 11.8 11.7 10.9 9.2 6.6 4.4 2.1 0.6
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.2 5.9 8.3 9.6 11.0 11.6 10.8 10.2 8.6 6.6 4.3 2.5 1.0 0.2
Montana St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.8 5.7 7.6 9.3 10.7 11.4 11.2 10.3 8.7 7.1 5.0 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2
Northern Arizona 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.7 7.8 9.9 10.9 11.4 11.1 10.0 8.5 6.8 4.7 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1
Northern Colorado 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.7 5.6 7.8 9.7 10.8 11.4 11.2 10.1 8.4 6.7 4.9 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1
Sacramento St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.8 5.6 7.7 9.6 11.1 11.6 11.1 10.4 8.7 6.5 4.6 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
Idaho St. 7 - 11 0.4 1.9 4.0 6.5 9.1 11.0 11.8 11.9 10.6 9.5 7.9 6.0 4.2 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Idaho 4 - 14 7.2 13.4 16.5 15.6 13.7 10.7 8.2 5.7 3.6 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Weber St. 27.6% 19.5 6.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 25.7% 18.0 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Montana 20.9% 13.9 5.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 13.5% 8.4 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 9.7% 6.1 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 9.6% 5.8 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Colorado 6.5% 3.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 6.2% 3.8 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 2.9% 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Idaho 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Weber St. 22.9% 22.8% 0.1% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.4 5.3 5.6 4.2 3.0 77.1 0.2%
Eastern Washington 19.9% 19.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.0 4.4 4.3 3.5 3.2 80.1 0.2%
Montana 16.8% 16.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.4 4.1 3.7 2.7 83.2 0.1%
Portland St. 11.1% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 88.9 0.0%
Montana St. 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 91.8 0.0%
Northern Arizona 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.2 92.3 0.0%
Northern Colorado 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.7 94.6 0.0%
Sacramento St. 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.9 94.6 0.0%
Idaho St. 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 97.3 0.0%
Idaho 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Weber St. 22.9% 1.9% 22.1% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 19.9% 2.3% 19.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 16.8% 1.7% 16.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 11.1% 1.5% 10.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 8.2% 1.3% 7.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 7.7% 1.4% 7.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 5.4% 1.1% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 5.4% 1.3% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 2.7% 0.8% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 94.3% 0.9 5.7 94.0 0.2
2nd Round 10.1% 0.1 89.9 10.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2 0.0
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0