Preseason Rankings
Montana St.
Big Sky
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#225
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.2#227
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#261
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#192
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 13.0% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 50.1% 72.5% 44.3%
.500 or above in Conference 59.0% 72.6% 55.4%
Conference Champion 9.7% 16.0% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 2.5% 6.7%
First Four1.3% 1.0% 1.3%
First Round7.6% 12.5% 6.3%
Second Round0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 20.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 411 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 126   @ Seattle L 65-74 21%    
  Nov 16, 2023 105   @ California L 59-69 17%    
  Nov 20, 2023 340   Green Bay W 73-62 84%    
  Nov 22, 2023 202   UC Riverside W 68-67 56%    
  Nov 26, 2023 141   Long Beach St. L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 05, 2023 74   @ Washington L 63-77 11%    
  Dec 19, 2023 226   Southern Utah W 76-73 60%    
  Dec 22, 2023 316   @ Cal St. Northridge W 67-65 58%    
  Dec 28, 2023 290   @ Idaho St. W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 30, 2023 160   @ Weber St. L 62-69 28%    
  Jan 03, 2024 175   Oral Roberts L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 06, 2024 151   @ South Dakota St. L 65-73 26%    
  Jan 11, 2024 231   Northern Arizona W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 13, 2024 251   Northern Colorado W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 20, 2024 181   Montana W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 22, 2024 290   Idaho St. W 70-63 71%    
  Jan 25, 2024 252   @ Sacramento St. L 64-65 45%    
  Jan 27, 2024 211   @ Portland St. L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 01, 2024 169   Eastern Washington L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 03, 2024 354   Idaho W 75-62 85%    
  Feb 08, 2024 251   @ Northern Colorado L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 10, 2024 231   @ Northern Arizona L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 17, 2024 181   @ Montana L 63-69 32%    
  Feb 22, 2024 211   Portland St. W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 24, 2024 252   Sacramento St. W 67-62 65%    
  Feb 29, 2024 354   @ Idaho W 72-65 71%    
  Mar 02, 2024 169   @ Eastern Washington L 69-75 30%    
  Mar 04, 2024 160   Weber St. L 65-66 47%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.7 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.2 9.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.6 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 3.8 1.0 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 5.3 3.7 0.8 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 3.5 0.7 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.8 5.7 7.6 9.3 10.7 11.4 11.2 10.3 8.7 7.1 5.0 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 96.4% 1.5    1.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 80.6% 2.4    1.7 0.6 0.0
14-4 53.9% 2.7    1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 24.6% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
12-6 5.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 6.1 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 73.7% 65.4% 8.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.1%
17-1 0.7% 55.5% 54.9% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4%
16-2 1.6% 42.9% 42.7% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.4%
15-3 2.9% 33.0% 33.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0
14-4 5.0% 26.7% 26.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.7
13-5 7.1% 17.4% 17.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 5.9
12-6 8.7% 12.5% 12.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 7.6
11-7 10.3% 8.5% 8.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 9.4
10-8 11.2% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 10.6
9-9 11.4% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 11.0
8-10 10.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.5
7-11 9.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 9.2
6-12 7.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.6
5-13 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-14 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-15 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 91.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%