IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.7	#316
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.6	#294
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.1	#318

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.6	#283

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.6%	1.8%	0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	15.0	15.3

.500 or above	12.5%	37.4%	12.0%
.500 or above in Conference	11.7%	25.9%	11.4%
Conference Champion	0.4%	1.3%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	32.1%	16.6%	32.4%

First Four	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%
First Round	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 2.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	2 - 8	2 - 13
Quad 4	8 - 7	10 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	49	@ Stanford	L	57-78	2%
Nov 09, 2023	354	@ Idaho	W	68-67	55%
Nov 14, 2023	324	@ Chicago St.	L	65-67	42%
Nov 21, 2023	362	Le Moyne	W	74-60	89%
Nov 24, 2023	361	Mississippi Valley	W	72-60	86%
Nov 29, 2023	188	@ Pacific	L	66-77	17%
Dec 02, 2023	251	@ Northern Colorado	L	68-75	27%
Dec 11, 2023	210	Utah Tech	L	50-53	38%
Dec 19, 2023	19	@ UCLA	L	53-78	1%
Dec 22, 2023	225	Montana St.	L	65-67	42%
Dec 28, 2023	334	@ Cal Poly	L	60-61	47%
Dec 30, 2023	141	@ Long Beach St.	L	68-81	13%
Jan 06, 2024	142	Hawaii	L	60-67	27%
Jan 11, 2024	173	@ UC Davis	L	64-76	16%
Jan 13, 2024	161	Cal St. Fullerton	L	61-67	30%
Jan 18, 2024	150	UC Santa Barbara	L	62-69	28%
Jan 20, 2024	202	@ UC Riverside	L	62-72	20%
Jan 25, 2024	254	Cal St. Bakersfield	L	61-62	48%
Jan 27, 2024	97	@ UC Irvine	L	60-76	9%
Feb 01, 2024	241	@ UC San Diego	L	64-72	27%
Feb 03, 2024	202	UC Riverside	L	65-69	38%
Feb 08, 2024	334	Cal Poly	W	63-58	66%
Feb 10, 2024	150	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	59-72	15%
Feb 15, 2024	254	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	58-65	29%
Feb 17, 2024	141	Long Beach St.	L	71-78	27%
Feb 22, 2024	173	UC Davis	L	67-73	32%
Feb 24, 2024	161	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	58-70	16%
Feb 29, 2024	97	UC Irvine	L	63-73	19%
Mar 02, 2024	241	UC San Diego	L	67-69	45%
Mar 07, 2024	142	@ Hawaii	L	57-70	14%
Projected Record						10 - 20	6 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0					1.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0						1.5	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	0.9	0.9	0.3	0.0								2.5	4th
5th								0.0	0.0	0.5	1.4	1.3	0.4	0.0	0.0								3.7	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	0.9	2.1	1.8	0.5	0.0	0.0									5.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	1.6	3.1	2.6	0.8	0.0											8.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.8	2.8	4.4	3.2	0.8	0.1												12.1	8th
9th			0.0	0.4	2.1	5.1	5.8	3.4	0.8	0.1													17.5	9th
10th		0.2	1.9	5.2	7.4	6.0	2.7	0.6	0.1														24.1	10th
11th	1.8	4.7	6.8	5.7	3.2	0.9	0.1	0.0															23.2	11th

Total	1.8	4.9	8.7	11.2	12.7	12.9	11.7	10.0	8.2	6.2	4.3	2.9	2.0	1.2	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
17-3	97.6%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-4	59.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
15-5	36.1%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	12.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
13-7	1.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0						0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.4%	0.4		0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%																							0.0
18-2	0.0%		24.6%	24.6%		12.5													0.0	0.0				0.0
17-3	0.1%		15.9%	15.9%		13.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
16-4	0.1%		6.7%	6.7%		13.1														0.0	0.0			0.1
15-5	0.4%		10.5%	10.5%		13.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
14-6	0.7%		4.5%	4.5%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6
13-7	1.2%		5.7%	5.7%		14.6														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1
12-8	2.0%		3.7%	3.7%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9
11-9	2.9%		2.7%	2.7%		15.5															0.0	0.0	0.0	2.9
10-10	4.3%		1.7%	1.7%		15.6																0.0	0.0	4.2
9-11	6.2%		1.1%	1.1%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	6.1
8-12	8.2%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																0.0	0.0	8.1
7-13	10.0%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	10.0
6-14	11.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.7
5-15	12.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.8
4-16	12.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.7
3-17	11.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.2
2-18	8.7%																							8.7
1-19	4.9%																							4.9
0-20	1.8%																							1.8

Total	100%		0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	15.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	99.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%