Preseason Rankings
UCLA
Pac-12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#19
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.9#237
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.9% 5.9% 2.4%
Top 2 Seed 13.1% 13.1% 4.7%
Top 4 Seed 27.7% 27.7% 8.0%
Top 6 Seed 41.3% 41.3% 11.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.7% 69.7% 48.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.6% 64.6% 39.7%
Average Seed 5.7 5.7 8.2
.500 or above 87.9% 87.9% 62.7%
.500 or above in Conference 80.8% 80.8% 62.4%
Conference Champion 20.2% 20.2% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.4% 7.7%
First Four4.1% 4.1% 1.2%
First Round67.8% 67.9% 47.9%
Second Round48.3% 48.4% 24.0%
Sweet Sixteen25.8% 25.9% 10.1%
Elite Eight13.3% 13.3% 2.7%
Final Four6.5% 6.5% 0.0%
Championship Game3.1% 3.1% 0.0%
National Champion1.5% 1.5% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 25 - 210 - 9
Quad 34 - 114 - 9
Quad 45 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 358   St. Francis (PA) W 85-55 99.8%   
  Nov 10, 2023 293   Lafayette W 74-51 98%    
  Nov 15, 2023 359   LIU Brooklyn W 89-58 99.8%   
  Nov 20, 2023 9   Marquette L 70-72 42%    
  Nov 30, 2023 202   UC Riverside W 76-58 94%    
  Dec 09, 2023 20   @ Villanova L 64-67 40%    
  Dec 16, 2023 38   Ohio St. W 69-67 57%    
  Dec 19, 2023 316   Cal St. Northridge W 78-53 99%    
  Dec 22, 2023 29   Maryland W 67-63 63%    
  Dec 28, 2023 118   @ Oregon St. W 67-60 73%    
  Dec 30, 2023 35   @ Oregon L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 03, 2024 49   Stanford W 71-64 71%    
  Jan 06, 2024 105   California W 69-57 85%    
  Jan 11, 2024 62   @ Utah W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 14, 2024 74   Washington W 74-65 77%    
  Jan 17, 2024 65   @ Arizona St. W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 20, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 27, 2024 18   @ USC L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 01, 2024 118   Oregon St. W 70-57 87%    
  Feb 03, 2024 35   Oregon W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 07, 2024 49   @ Stanford W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 10, 2024 105   @ California W 66-60 70%    
  Feb 15, 2024 33   Colorado W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 18, 2024 62   Utah W 70-62 73%    
  Feb 24, 2024 18   USC W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 29, 2024 74   @ Washington W 71-68 59%    
  Mar 02, 2024 86   @ Washington St. W 66-62 63%    
  Mar 07, 2024 11   Arizona W 76-75 53%    
  Mar 09, 2024 65   Arizona St. W 72-64 75%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 4.8 5.2 4.0 2.0 0.6 20.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.3 5.4 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.6 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.5 3.7 1.1 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 3.0 0.7 0.1 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.8 6.3 7.7 9.6 10.5 10.8 10.7 9.9 8.5 6.3 4.1 2.0 0.6 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 99.4% 2.0    1.9 0.1
18-2 95.8% 4.0    3.5 0.4 0.0
17-3 82.1% 5.2    3.8 1.3 0.1
16-4 56.1% 4.8    2.7 1.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 26.8% 2.6    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.8% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.2% 20.2 13.7 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 100.0% 49.8% 50.2% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.0% 100.0% 40.9% 59.1% 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.1% 100.0% 35.9% 64.1% 1.8 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.3% 100.0% 27.7% 72.3% 2.4 1.4 2.3 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.5% 99.9% 23.0% 76.9% 3.4 0.7 1.8 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 9.9% 99.2% 19.9% 79.2% 4.6 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.5 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
14-6 10.7% 97.6% 15.6% 82.0% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 97.2%
13-7 10.8% 91.5% 12.9% 78.6% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.9 90.3%
12-8 10.5% 79.1% 10.3% 68.8% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 2.2 76.7%
11-9 9.6% 57.8% 7.8% 49.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.0 54.2%
10-10 7.7% 35.2% 5.9% 29.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 31.1%
9-11 6.3% 15.2% 6.3% 8.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 9.4%
8-12 4.8% 4.8% 3.7% 1.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 1.1%
7-13 3.3% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.2 0.0%
6-14 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.3
5-15 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
4-16 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-17 0.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 69.7% 14.4% 55.2% 5.7 5.9 7.1 7.3 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.6 6.1 5.7 5.2 3.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 30.3 64.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 90.5 9.5