Preseason Rankings
Maryland
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#29
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.5#320
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.3% 4.4% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 9.5% 9.7% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 21.6% 22.1% 5.9%
Top 6 Seed 34.2% 34.8% 10.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.0% 62.9% 33.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 58.9% 59.8% 30.6%
Average Seed 6.0 6.0 7.5
.500 or above 86.9% 87.7% 60.5%
.500 or above in Conference 65.0% 65.7% 43.0%
Conference Champion 8.6% 8.8% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 3.4% 8.3%
First Four4.2% 4.2% 3.0%
First Round60.0% 60.9% 31.4%
Second Round41.4% 42.0% 18.0%
Sweet Sixteen21.0% 21.4% 6.9%
Elite Eight9.9% 10.1% 3.5%
Final Four4.6% 4.7% 1.6%
Championship Game2.2% 2.2% 0.5%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 24 - 29 - 10
Quad 34 - 113 - 11
Quad 47 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 250   Mount St. Mary's W 74-54 97%    
  Nov 10, 2023 149   Davidson W 71-60 85%    
  Nov 17, 2023 20   @ Villanova L 63-67 36%    
  Nov 21, 2023 292   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 80-58 98%    
  Nov 25, 2023 177   South Alabama W 73-57 92%    
  Nov 28, 2023 230   Rider W 75-56 95%    
  Dec 01, 2023 39   @ Indiana L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 06, 2023 76   Penn St. W 69-61 77%    
  Dec 12, 2023 281   Alcorn St. W 78-56 97%    
  Dec 19, 2023 284   Nicholls St. W 82-60 97%    
  Dec 22, 2023 19   @ UCLA L 63-67 37%    
  Dec 28, 2023 357   Coppin St. W 86-57 99%    
  Jan 02, 2024 2   Purdue L 64-67 40%    
  Jan 07, 2024 113   @ Minnesota W 68-62 68%    
  Jan 11, 2024 48   Michigan W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 14, 2024 21   @ Illinois L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 17, 2024 47   @ Northwestern L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 21, 2024 5   Michigan St. L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 24, 2024 42   @ Iowa L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 27, 2024 67   Nebraska W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 03, 2024 5   @ Michigan St. L 62-69 28%    
  Feb 06, 2024 51   Rutgers W 67-61 69%    
  Feb 10, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 13, 2024 42   Iowa W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 17, 2024 21   Illinois W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 20, 2024 28   @ Wisconsin L 60-63 40%    
  Feb 25, 2024 51   @ Rutgers L 63-64 50%    
  Feb 28, 2024 47   Northwestern W 67-62 67%    
  Mar 03, 2024 39   Indiana W 70-66 64%    
  Mar 10, 2024 76   @ Penn St. W 66-64 58%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 8.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2 3.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.8 3.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.2 3.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.5 0.7 0.0 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 4.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 3.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.6 6.3 8.0 9.2 10.0 10.4 10.8 9.2 7.7 6.4 4.8 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.2% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 89.5% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
17-3 75.1% 2.4    1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 46.4% 2.2    1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 19.3% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 5.2 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.1% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 1.9 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.8% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 2.6 0.8 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.4% 99.9% 14.6% 85.4% 3.5 0.4 1.1 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 7.7% 99.5% 10.0% 89.5% 4.6 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 9.2% 98.2% 9.4% 88.8% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 98.0%
12-8 10.8% 93.6% 7.5% 86.1% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.7 93.0%
11-9 10.4% 81.7% 5.1% 76.6% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.0 1.9 80.8%
10-10 10.0% 60.6% 4.9% 55.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.0 58.5%
9-11 9.2% 29.1% 4.3% 24.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 26.0%
8-12 8.0% 9.5% 3.6% 5.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 6.1%
7-13 6.3% 2.5% 2.1% 0.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.4%
6-14 4.6% 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1%
5-15 3.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.2
4-16 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-17 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-18 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 62.0% 7.4% 54.6% 6.0 4.3 5.2 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.6 5.5 5.0 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 38.0 58.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.6 6.4