Preseason Rankings
South Alabama
Sun Belt
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#177
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.8#271
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#212
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#149
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 10.5% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.1 14.0
.500 or above 59.0% 72.9% 46.6%
.500 or above in Conference 62.0% 70.5% 54.3%
Conference Champion 9.2% 12.7% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 2.6% 6.9%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.7%
First Round7.7% 10.3% 5.3%
Second Round1.1% 1.6% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 410 - 314 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 216   @ Buffalo L 74-75 47%    
  Nov 14, 2023 12   @ Alabama L 65-83 5%    
  Nov 16, 2023 284   Nicholls St. W 77-68 81%    
  Nov 17, 2023 307   Denver W 77-66 83%    
  Nov 19, 2023 259   SIU Edwardsville W 74-66 76%    
  Nov 25, 2023 29   @ Maryland L 57-73 8%    
  Nov 30, 2023 221   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-66 49%    
  Dec 06, 2023 237   @ Mercer W 65-64 53%    
  Dec 21, 2023 338   Alabama A&M W 74-60 88%    
  Dec 30, 2023 180   @ Old Dominion L 63-66 41%    
  Jan 04, 2024 153   Appalachian St. W 65-63 55%    
  Jan 06, 2024 206   Georgia St. W 70-65 65%    
  Jan 11, 2024 121   @ James Madison L 69-75 31%    
  Jan 13, 2024 135   @ Marshall L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 18, 2024 218   Troy W 70-65 68%    
  Jan 20, 2024 176   Louisiana W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 25, 2024 287   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-64 61%    
  Jan 27, 2024 218   @ Troy L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 01, 2024 193   @ Texas St. L 62-64 43%    
  Feb 03, 2024 176   @ Louisiana L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 07, 2024 229   Georgia Southern W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 15, 2024 193   Texas St. W 65-61 63%    
  Feb 17, 2024 198   Arkansas St. W 66-62 63%    
  Feb 22, 2024 152   @ Southern Miss L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 24, 2024 198   @ Arkansas St. L 63-65 44%    
  Feb 28, 2024 152   Southern Miss W 70-68 55%    
  Mar 01, 2024 287   Louisiana Monroe W 71-61 78%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.2 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.5 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 3.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 8.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.4 0.7 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.0 1.0 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.3 1.7 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.7 2.6 0.2 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.3 0.9 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.3 0.1 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.1 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.6 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.5 5.3 7.2 8.8 10.0 11.2 11.5 10.4 9.3 7.4 5.5 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.1% 0.9    0.8 0.0
16-2 92.2% 1.8    1.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 73.1% 2.7    1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 42.6% 2.4    0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.9% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 71.1% 53.6% 17.5% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 37.7%
17-1 0.9% 45.9% 39.1% 6.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 11.2%
16-2 1.9% 35.3% 33.0% 2.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 3.3%
15-3 3.6% 27.8% 27.4% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 0.6%
14-4 5.5% 20.7% 20.7% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 4.4
13-5 7.4% 14.5% 14.5% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.4
12-6 9.3% 10.6% 10.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.3
11-7 10.4% 8.4% 8.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 9.5
10-8 11.5% 6.2% 6.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 10.8
9-9 11.2% 3.4% 3.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.8
8-10 10.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.7
7-11 8.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.7
6-12 7.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.1
5-13 5.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.3
4-14 3.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-15 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.9% 7.8% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.9 92.1 0.2%