Preseason Rankings
Texas St.
Sun Belt
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#193
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.9#339
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#242
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#152
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 7.3% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 14.4
.500 or above 45.4% 57.3% 29.4%
.500 or above in Conference 56.4% 63.6% 46.8%
Conference Champion 7.4% 9.8% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 4.4% 9.2%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
First Round5.5% 6.9% 3.5%
Second Round0.8% 1.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 57.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 11
Quad 49 - 413 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 275   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 72-70 57%    
  Nov 11, 2023 260   @ Miami (OH) W 67-66 54%    
  Nov 14, 2023 53   @ Oklahoma L 56-70 11%    
  Nov 17, 2023 249   Texas San Antonio W 72-66 72%    
  Nov 21, 2023 271   McNeese St. W 69-64 66%    
  Nov 22, 2023 226   Southern Utah W 72-70 58%    
  Nov 25, 2023 200   @ Texas Arlington L 62-65 40%    
  Nov 30, 2023 15   @ Texas L 57-76 5%    
  Dec 15, 2023 117   @ Sam Houston St. L 58-65 27%    
  Dec 21, 2023 4   @ Houston L 51-72 4%    
  Dec 30, 2023 121   @ James Madison L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 04, 2024 270   Coastal Carolina W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 06, 2024 135   Marshall L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 11, 2024 198   @ Arkansas St. L 60-63 40%    
  Jan 13, 2024 287   @ Louisiana Monroe W 65-62 59%    
  Jan 17, 2024 176   Louisiana W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 20, 2024 198   Arkansas St. W 63-60 60%    
  Jan 24, 2024 218   @ Troy L 64-66 44%    
  Jan 27, 2024 176   @ Louisiana L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 01, 2024 177   South Alabama W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 03, 2024 152   Southern Miss W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 07, 2024 153   Appalachian St. W 62-61 52%    
  Feb 15, 2024 177   @ South Alabama L 61-65 37%    
  Feb 17, 2024 152   @ Southern Miss L 64-69 33%    
  Feb 22, 2024 229   @ Georgia Southern L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 24, 2024 206   @ Georgia St. L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 27, 2024 287   Louisiana Monroe W 68-59 76%    
  Mar 01, 2024 218   Troy W 67-63 64%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 7.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 3.9 0.9 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.8 0.9 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 1.5 0.1 6.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.1 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.6 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.1 8.0 10.0 10.7 11.1 11.1 9.7 8.3 6.5 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.8% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 91.5% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
15-3 72.5% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 42.5% 1.9    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 4.2 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 66.9% 61.5% 5.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1%
17-1 0.6% 47.9% 40.5% 7.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12.4%
16-2 1.5% 31.4% 28.9% 2.4% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.4%
15-3 2.8% 26.5% 26.3% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.2%
14-4 4.6% 15.7% 15.6% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.8 0.2%
13-5 6.5% 12.9% 12.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.7
12-6 8.3% 8.2% 8.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.7
11-7 9.7% 6.5% 6.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.1
10-8 11.1% 5.0% 5.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 10.5
9-9 11.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.7
8-10 10.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.5
7-11 10.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.9
6-12 8.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.9
5-13 6.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.1
4-14 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-15 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-16 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 94.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%