Preseason Rankings
James Madison
Sun Belt
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#121
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.3#30
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#112
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#156
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 2.3% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 28.9% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 4.0% 0.7%
Average Seed 12.6 11.2 12.8
.500 or above 82.9% 97.1% 82.1%
.500 or above in Conference 80.3% 92.7% 79.6%
Conference Champion 20.4% 35.2% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.0% 1.7%
First Four0.9% 1.5% 0.9%
First Round16.3% 28.1% 15.6%
Second Round3.5% 10.1% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 2.6% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 5.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 412 - 318 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 5   @ Michigan St. L 64-81 5%    
  Nov 09, 2023 107   @ Kent St. L 73-77 34%    
  Nov 12, 2023 247   Howard W 84-74 83%    
  Nov 17, 2023 182   Radford W 75-69 71%    
  Nov 21, 2023 171   Southern Illinois W 70-67 60%    
  Nov 29, 2023 216   Buffalo W 86-78 77%    
  Dec 09, 2023 180   @ Old Dominion W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 16, 2023 312   @ Hampton W 82-74 76%    
  Dec 19, 2023 357   Coppin St. W 91-71 95%    
  Dec 22, 2023 333   @ Morgan St. W 84-74 81%    
  Dec 30, 2023 193   Texas St. W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 04, 2024 176   @ Louisiana L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 06, 2024 152   @ Southern Miss L 76-77 45%    
  Jan 11, 2024 177   South Alabama W 75-69 69%    
  Jan 13, 2024 153   Appalachian St. W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 18, 2024 287   Louisiana Monroe W 79-66 85%    
  Jan 20, 2024 135   Marshall W 84-80 62%    
  Jan 24, 2024 180   @ Old Dominion W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 27, 2024 153   @ Appalachian St. L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 01, 2024 270   Coastal Carolina W 84-72 83%    
  Feb 03, 2024 180   Old Dominion W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 07, 2024 198   @ Arkansas St. W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 15, 2024 206   Georgia St. W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 17, 2024 229   Georgia Southern W 77-68 77%    
  Feb 21, 2024 135   @ Marshall L 81-83 42%    
  Feb 24, 2024 229   @ Georgia Southern W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 28, 2024 206   @ Georgia St. W 75-73 55%    
  Mar 01, 2024 270   @ Coastal Carolina W 81-75 68%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.4 5.7 4.7 2.6 0.8 20.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.1 4.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.0 3.6 1.0 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.2 3.4 0.8 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.6 3.7 0.7 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.7 1.0 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.3 1.5 0.1 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.0 0.2 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.0 6.9 8.7 10.6 11.5 12.0 11.4 9.9 7.7 5.1 2.6 0.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.4% 2.6    2.5 0.1
16-2 92.8% 4.7    4.0 0.7 0.0
15-3 74.9% 5.7    3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 44.0% 4.4    1.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 16.0% 1.8    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.4% 20.4 13.3 5.3 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 84.3% 64.3% 20.0% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 56.1%
17-1 2.6% 62.3% 49.5% 12.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 25.2%
16-2 5.1% 46.5% 42.1% 4.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 7.5%
15-3 7.7% 34.0% 33.5% 0.4% 12.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.1 0.6%
14-4 9.9% 26.7% 26.7% 12.8 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.3
13-5 11.4% 17.8% 17.8% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.3
12-6 12.0% 14.6% 14.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 10.2
11-7 11.5% 10.1% 10.1% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 10.3
10-8 10.6% 7.6% 7.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.8
9-9 8.7% 6.2% 6.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 8.2
8-10 6.9% 3.7% 3.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.7
7-11 5.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.9
6-12 3.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 3.5
5-13 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 16.7% 15.9% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.0 4.1 4.0 2.9 1.6 0.8 83.3 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.1 34.4 1.1 17.2 29.0 1.1 16.1 1.1