Preseason Rankings
Louisiana
Sun Belt
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#176
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#127
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#155
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#195
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 10.0% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 14.1
.500 or above 56.5% 65.1% 37.6%
.500 or above in Conference 63.3% 68.5% 51.7%
Conference Champion 10.7% 12.8% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 3.4% 7.7%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 1.0%
First Round8.1% 9.6% 4.8%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Home) - 68.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 48 - 313 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 212   Youngstown St. W 79-74 69%    
  Nov 11, 2023 132   @ Toledo L 77-82 31%    
  Nov 20, 2023 131   Wright St. L 78-80 41%    
  Nov 30, 2023 165   @ Samford L 73-77 37%    
  Dec 09, 2023 120   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-74 30%    
  Dec 13, 2023 134   Eastern Kentucky W 78-77 53%    
  Dec 17, 2023 271   @ McNeese St. W 75-72 59%    
  Dec 22, 2023 178   @ Rice L 76-79 41%    
  Dec 30, 2023 135   @ Marshall L 76-81 33%    
  Jan 04, 2024 121   James Madison W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 06, 2024 270   Coastal Carolina W 79-70 77%    
  Jan 10, 2024 218   @ Troy L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 13, 2024 198   @ Arkansas St. L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 17, 2024 193   @ Texas St. L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 20, 2024 177   @ South Alabama L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 25, 2024 198   Arkansas St. W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 27, 2024 193   Texas St. W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 31, 2024 287   Louisiana Monroe W 75-65 79%    
  Feb 03, 2024 177   South Alabama W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 07, 2024 206   Georgia St. W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 15, 2024 180   @ Old Dominion L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 17, 2024 153   @ Appalachian St. L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 22, 2024 287   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 24, 2024 152   @ Southern Miss L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 28, 2024 218   Troy W 74-69 67%    
  Mar 01, 2024 152   Southern Miss W 74-72 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.7 3.0 2.3 0.9 0.2 10.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.5 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.7 3.3 0.7 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.2 1.6 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.0 2.4 0.2 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.1 0.9 0.0 6.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 1.5 0.1 5.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.6 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.2 4.9 6.7 8.5 10.3 11.0 11.1 10.3 9.7 7.6 6.0 4.0 2.5 1.0 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 96.7% 0.9    0.9 0.1
16-2 94.5% 2.3    2.0 0.4 0.0
15-3 76.4% 3.0    2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 44.7% 2.7    1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 15.5% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 6.4 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 79.8% 49.5% 30.4% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.1%
17-1 1.0% 55.6% 44.5% 11.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 20.1%
16-2 2.5% 38.5% 35.6% 3.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 4.6%
15-3 4.0% 26.9% 26.1% 0.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 1.1%
14-4 6.0% 21.7% 21.6% 0.1% 12.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.7 0.1%
13-5 7.6% 15.9% 15.9% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.4
12-6 9.7% 10.7% 10.7% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.6
11-7 10.3% 7.4% 7.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.5
10-8 11.1% 5.1% 5.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 10.5
9-9 11.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.6
8-10 10.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.1
7-11 8.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.4
6-12 6.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.6
5-13 4.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.8
4-14 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.5% 8.2% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.1 1.1 91.5 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.1 30.2 1.9 15.1 34.0 17.0 1.9
Lose Out 0.0%