Preseason Rankings
Troy
Sun Belt
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#218
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#153
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#259
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#172
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 6.9% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.3 14.3
.500 or above 32.5% 53.2% 26.4%
.500 or above in Conference 47.7% 62.3% 43.5%
Conference Champion 5.1% 8.9% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 5.6% 11.6%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
First Round3.7% 6.5% 2.9%
Second Round0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 22.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 47 - 411 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 127   @ Ohio L 69-77 23%    
  Nov 10, 2023 118   @ Oregon St. L 61-69 21%    
  Nov 20, 2023 117   Sam Houston St. L 64-67 41%    
  Nov 24, 2023 253   Grambling St. W 69-64 68%    
  Nov 27, 2023 134   @ Eastern Kentucky L 71-79 25%    
  Dec 01, 2023 259   SIU Edwardsville W 75-69 69%    
  Dec 09, 2023 72   @ Dayton L 57-70 13%    
  Dec 19, 2023 60   @ Mississippi L 61-76 10%    
  Dec 21, 2023 134   Eastern Kentucky L 74-76 44%    
  Dec 30, 2023 270   @ Coastal Carolina W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 04, 2024 180   Old Dominion W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 06, 2024 153   Appalachian St. L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 10, 2024 176   Louisiana W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 13, 2024 152   Southern Miss L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 18, 2024 177   @ South Alabama L 65-70 32%    
  Jan 20, 2024 152   @ Southern Miss L 67-74 29%    
  Jan 24, 2024 193   Texas St. W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 27, 2024 177   South Alabama W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 01, 2024 229   @ Georgia Southern L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 03, 2024 206   @ Georgia St. L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 07, 2024 135   Marshall L 75-77 45%    
  Feb 15, 2024 198   Arkansas St. W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 17, 2024 287   Louisiana Monroe W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 22, 2024 198   @ Arkansas St. L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 24, 2024 287   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 28, 2024 176   @ Louisiana L 69-74 33%    
  Mar 01, 2024 193   @ Texas St. L 63-67 36%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 5.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.4 0.7 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.4 1.4 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 4.0 2.5 0.2 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.9 1.1 0.0 8.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 1.7 0.1 8.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.3 13th
14th 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.0 14th
Total 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.0 6.0 7.8 9.6 10.5 10.8 11.0 9.7 8.3 7.0 5.1 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.7% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 92.0% 0.8    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 72.1% 1.4    0.9 0.4 0.1
14-4 43.1% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.2% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 63.1% 37.6% 25.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.9%
17-1 0.5% 47.7% 40.5% 7.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12.0%
16-2 0.9% 31.1% 28.7% 2.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 3.5%
15-3 1.9% 20.3% 20.3% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5
14-4 3.2% 17.3% 17.3% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.7
13-5 5.1% 10.7% 10.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.5
12-6 7.0% 6.6% 6.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.6
11-7 8.3% 5.7% 5.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.8
10-8 9.7% 3.8% 3.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.3
9-9 11.0% 2.6% 2.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.8
8-10 10.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 10.6
7-11 10.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.5
6-12 9.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.5
5-13 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.8
4-14 6.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.0
3-15 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 96.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.0 32.0 4.0 32.0 32.0
Lose Out 0.1%