Preseason Rankings
Ohio
Mid-American
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#127
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.9#133
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#87
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#194
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 20.5% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.6
.500 or above 82.7% 87.4% 66.5%
.500 or above in Conference 83.1% 85.9% 73.7%
Conference Champion 20.8% 23.3% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.8% 1.9%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round18.0% 20.1% 10.9%
Second Round3.6% 4.3% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.3% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 77.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 412 - 318 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 218   Troy W 77-69 77%    
  Nov 11, 2023 187   @ Cleveland St. W 73-72 51%    
  Nov 18, 2023 265   Detroit Mercy W 82-71 84%    
  Nov 24, 2023 238   George Washington W 81-75 71%    
  Dec 02, 2023 194   Delaware W 77-70 73%    
  Dec 06, 2023 212   Youngstown St. W 82-74 76%    
  Dec 09, 2023 135   Marshall W 82-79 61%    
  Dec 22, 2023 236   @ Austin Peay W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 30, 2023 149   Davidson W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 02, 2024 132   Toledo W 82-79 60%    
  Jan 06, 2024 240   Northern Illinois W 81-71 79%    
  Jan 09, 2024 235   @ Bowling Green W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 13, 2024 319   @ Western Michigan W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 16, 2024 323   Central Michigan W 80-65 89%    
  Jan 20, 2024 315   Eastern Michigan W 84-70 88%    
  Jan 23, 2024 114   @ Akron L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 27, 2024 107   @ Kent St. L 71-76 35%    
  Jan 30, 2024 216   Buffalo W 84-76 74%    
  Feb 03, 2024 260   Miami (OH) W 80-69 81%    
  Feb 06, 2024 234   @ Ball St. W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 17, 2024 132   @ Toledo L 79-82 40%    
  Feb 20, 2024 107   Kent St. W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 24, 2024 240   @ Northern Illinois W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 27, 2024 114   Akron W 72-70 56%    
  Mar 02, 2024 235   Bowling Green W 83-74 77%    
  Mar 05, 2024 216   @ Buffalo W 81-79 57%    
  Mar 08, 2024 260   @ Miami (OH) W 77-72 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 6.0 5.3 2.8 0.9 20.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.8 5.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.0 4.1 1.0 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.8 4.5 6.4 8.3 10.7 11.5 12.5 11.9 10.3 8.5 5.7 2.8 0.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8 0.1
16-2 93.7% 5.3    4.4 0.9 0.0
15-3 71.2% 6.0    3.7 2.1 0.2
14-4 38.1% 3.9    1.6 1.8 0.5 0.0
13-5 12.6% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.8% 20.8 13.7 5.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 84.1% 66.8% 17.2% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 52.0%
17-1 2.8% 67.7% 56.2% 11.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 26.2%
16-2 5.7% 47.9% 44.5% 3.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.0 6.3%
15-3 8.5% 36.7% 35.9% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.4 1.1%
14-4 10.3% 28.6% 28.6% 0.0% 13.1 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.4 0.0%
13-5 11.9% 21.0% 21.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 9.4
12-6 12.5% 14.3% 14.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 10.7
11-7 11.5% 10.3% 10.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 10.3
10-8 10.7% 6.5% 6.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 10.0
9-9 8.3% 4.7% 4.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 7.9
8-10 6.4% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.2
7-11 4.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.4
6-12 2.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.4% 17.7% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.9 4.2 4.6 3.6 1.9 0.9 81.6 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 93.6% 4.9 6.0 6.4 10.7 11.5 27.3 16.8 7.3 0.2 4.7 1.3 1.5