Preseason Rankings
Mid-American
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
107 Kent St. 26.2%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 9 13 - 5 +4.0      +1.4 134 +2.6 98 69.1 151 0.0 1 0.0 1
114 Akron 23.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 9 12 - 6 +3.5      +1.8 124 +1.7 118 64.2 281 0.0 1 0.0 1
127 Ohio 18.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 12 - 6 +2.4      +3.1 87 -0.7 194 69.9 133 0.0 1 0.0 1
132 Toledo 17.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +2.2      +5.2 45 -3.0 267 72.6 63 0.0 1 0.0 1
216 Buffalo 4.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 -2.5      -0.2 183 -2.4 245 78.5 13 0.0 1 0.0 1
234 Ball St. 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -3.9      -0.6 199 -3.3 274 67.9 178 0.0 1 0.0 1
235 Bowling Green 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -3.9      +0.3 164 -4.3 304 72.8 57 0.0 1 0.0 1
240 Northern Illinois 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -4.1      -1.7 239 -2.4 251 71.2 103 0.0 1 0.0 1
260 Miami (OH) 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -5.3      -1.4 230 -3.9 294 67.3 195 0.0 1 0.0 1
315 Eastern Michigan 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -8.5      -2.8 263 -5.7 339 71.9 80 0.0 1 0.0 1
319 Western Michigan 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -8.9      -3.6 288 -5.2 327 65.1 264 0.0 1 0.0 1
323 Central Michigan 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 12 -9.3      -5.3 321 -4.1 299 68.0 176 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Kent St. 3.1 31.5 19.9 14.6 10.6 7.5 5.7 3.9 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2
Akron 3.3 28.9 20.1 14.7 10.9 8.1 6.1 4.2 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2
Ohio 3.9 20.8 17.2 14.7 12.0 9.9 7.7 6.1 4.7 3.2 2.1 1.2 0.5
Toledo 3.9 20.1 17.3 14.9 12.1 9.8 7.9 5.9 4.5 3.3 2.4 1.2 0.5
Buffalo 6.2 5.2 7.5 8.9 10.3 10.4 10.9 11.0 10.1 9.4 7.5 5.4 3.5
Ball St. 6.2 4.9 7.9 9.3 10.6 11.0 10.8 10.1 9.6 8.4 7.4 6.0 3.9
Bowling Green 6.3 4.5 7.0 9.0 10.1 10.5 11.3 10.8 10.2 8.9 7.7 5.8 4.2
Northern Illinois 7.2 2.9 4.7 6.3 7.4 8.9 10.0 10.9 11.3 11.5 10.8 9.5 5.8
Miami (OH) 7.1 2.7 4.8 6.5 8.6 9.2 10.5 11.0 10.9 10.6 10.2 8.6 6.3
Eastern Michigan 8.7 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.2 5.5 7.1 8.7 10.1 12.2 14.2 15.7 17.0
Western Michigan 8.8 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.0 5.2 6.7 8.4 10.4 12.2 14.1 16.7 17.8
Central Michigan 9.0 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.1 6.3 8.1 10.0 11.7 14.1 16.9 20.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kent St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.5 4.3 5.9 7.8 10.2 12.2 13.2 12.9 11.9 8.9 5.3 2.0
Akron 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.8 4.5 6.3 8.6 10.5 12.4 13.1 13.2 11.2 8.0 4.5 1.7
Ohio 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.8 4.5 6.4 8.3 10.7 11.5 12.5 11.9 10.3 8.5 5.7 2.8 0.9
Toledo 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.4 6.3 8.3 10.5 11.7 12.4 11.9 10.6 8.4 5.4 2.7 0.8
Buffalo 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.5 9.0 10.6 11.7 11.7 10.9 9.9 7.7 5.8 3.7 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
Ball St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.4 4.5 6.6 8.4 10.1 11.2 11.2 11.1 10.0 8.3 6.1 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
Bowling Green 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.7 6.7 8.9 10.6 11.7 11.6 11.1 9.5 7.7 5.5 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
Northern Illinois 8 - 10 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.7 6.9 9.5 11.2 11.8 11.9 10.8 9.3 7.1 5.5 3.5 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
Miami (OH) 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.1 6.6 9.2 10.5 11.8 11.7 11.3 9.6 8.0 5.8 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 6 - 12 1.1 3.6 6.8 9.7 11.2 12.8 12.4 11.2 9.6 7.5 5.6 3.8 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 6 - 12 1.2 3.7 7.1 10.0 11.9 13.0 12.8 11.2 9.2 7.1 5.2 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 6 - 12 1.4 4.4 7.8 10.9 12.6 12.5 12.4 11.0 8.7 6.8 4.7 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kent St. 31.5% 22.0 7.6 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Akron 28.9% 19.6 7.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ohio 20.8% 13.7 5.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Toledo 20.1% 13.3 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 5.2% 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 4.9% 2.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 4.5% 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 2.9% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 2.7% 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kent St. 26.2% 25.0% 1.1% 13   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 3.7 6.9 6.1 3.9 1.8 0.9 73.8 1.5%
Akron 23.4% 22.4% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 3.2 6.1 5.6 3.6 1.9 0.8 76.6 1.3%
Ohio 18.4% 17.7% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.9 4.2 4.6 3.6 1.9 0.9 81.6 0.9%
Toledo 17.1% 16.5% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.0 4.1 4.0 2.9 1.7 1.1 82.9 0.7%
Buffalo 4.9% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 95.1 0.1%
Ball St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 96.6 0.0%
Bowling Green 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 96.8 0.0%
Northern Illinois 3.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 96.7 0.0%
Miami (OH) 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 97.9 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.3 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kent St. 26.2% 1.1% 25.6% 6.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Akron 23.4% 1.0% 22.9% 5.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 18.4% 0.9% 18.0% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 17.1% 1.0% 16.7% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 4.9% 0.7% 4.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 3.4% 0.4% 3.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 3.2% 0.4% 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 3.3% 0.9% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 2.1% 0.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
1st Round 97.6% 1.0 2.4 95.0 2.5 0.0
2nd Round 19.6% 0.2 80.4 19.4 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 5.9% 0.1 94.1 5.9 0.0
Elite Eight 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0