IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.1	#240
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.2	#103
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.7	#239

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.4	#251

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.3%	9.8%	3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.4	13.2	14.5

.500 or above	25.6%	64.2%	25.0%
.500 or above in Conference	40.1%	68.1%	39.6%
Conference Champion	2.9%	6.9%	2.8%
Last Place in Conference	10.4%	2.4%	10.6%

First Four	0.9%	1.3%	0.9%
First Round	2.9%	9.5%	2.7%
Second Round	0.2%	1.2%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 1.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 6	3 - 12
Quad 4	8 - 5	11 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	9	@ Marquette	L	64-87	2%
Nov 11, 2023	153	Appalachian St.	L	67-69	42%
Nov 17, 2023	206	@ Georgia St.	L	69-74	32%
Nov 18, 2023	275	Arkansas Little Rock	W	80-78	57%
Nov 25, 2023	109	@ DePaul	L	70-81	17%
Nov 27, 2023	47	@ Northwestern	L	60-77	7%
Dec 05, 2023	122	Indiana St.	L	75-79	37%
Dec 09, 2023	311	@ Monmouth	W	73-72	54%
Dec 21, 2023	123	Northern Iowa	L	71-75	38%
Dec 29, 2023	42	@ Iowa	L	70-88	6%
Jan 02, 2024	114	Akron	L	68-73	34%
Jan 06, 2024	127	@ Ohio	L	71-81	21%
Jan 09, 2024	319	@ Western Michigan	W	73-71	56%
Jan 13, 2024	235	Bowling Green	W	79-76	59%
Jan 16, 2024	107	Kent St.	L	70-75	33%
Jan 23, 2024	132	Toledo	L	78-81	39%
Jan 27, 2024	234	@ Ball St.	L	73-76	40%
Jan 30, 2024	323	@ Central Michigan	W	73-71	57%
Feb 03, 2024	315	Eastern Michigan	W	80-73	73%
Feb 06, 2024	260	@ Miami (OH)	L	73-75	44%
Feb 13, 2024	216	Buffalo	W	80-79	55%
Feb 17, 2024	107	@ Kent St.	L	67-78	18%
Feb 20, 2024	234	Ball St.	W	76-73	59%
Feb 24, 2024	127	Ohio	L	74-78	38%
Feb 27, 2024	132	@ Toledo	L	75-84	22%
Mar 02, 2024	114	@ Akron	L	65-76	19%
Mar 05, 2024	323	Central Michigan	W	76-68	75%
Mar 08, 2024	216	@ Buffalo	L	77-82	35%
Projected Record						11 - 17	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.0		2.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.3	1.8	1.1	0.3	0.0				4.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	1.8	2.7	1.2	0.2	0.0					6.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.4	3.3	1.3	0.1	0.0						7.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.4	2.6	4.1	1.6	0.1	0.0							8.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.8	4.6	2.1	0.2									10.0	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.5	5.2	2.6	0.3	0.0									10.9	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	2.4	5.2	3.0	0.5	0.0										11.3	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	2.3	5.2	3.2	0.5	0.0											11.5	9th
10th			0.0	0.4	2.3	4.6	2.9	0.5	0.0												10.8	10th
11th		0.1	0.7	2.6	3.4	2.2	0.5	0.0													9.5	11th
12th	0.3	0.9	1.8	1.7	0.9	0.2	0.0														5.8	12th

Total	0.3	1.0	2.6	4.7	6.9	9.5	11.2	11.8	11.9	10.8	9.3	7.1	5.5	3.5	2.3	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.0			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	96.7%	0.4		0.4	0.1
15-3	70.1%	0.7		0.5	0.2	0.0
14-4	42.7%	1.0		0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	13.7%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0			0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0								0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.9%	2.9		1.5	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		72.1%	70.5%	1.6%	10.6										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		5.6%
17-1	0.2%		39.0%	30.8%	8.3%	11.3								0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		11.9%
16-2	0.4%		27.6%	26.5%	1.1%	12.3										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3		1.5%
15-3	1.0%		27.6%	27.6%	0.1%	12.8												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.7		0.1%
14-4	2.3%		15.7%	15.7%		13.4													0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.9
13-5	3.5%		11.4%	11.4%		13.8												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	3.1
12-6	5.5%		9.4%	9.4%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	5.0
11-7	7.1%		5.9%	5.9%		14.9														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	6.7
10-8	9.3%		3.9%	3.9%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	8.9
9-9	10.8%		2.5%	2.5%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	10.5
8-10	11.9%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.2	11.7
7-11	11.8%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.7
6-12	11.2%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	11.1
5-13	9.5%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	9.4
4-14	6.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.9
3-15	4.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.7
2-16	2.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	2.6
1-17	1.0%																							1.0
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		3.3%	3.2%	0.0%	14.4								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.6	1.1	96.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%