Preseason Rankings
Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#265
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.6#185
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#167
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#341
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 8.0% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 24.2% 46.9% 20.1%
.500 or above in Conference 48.6% 66.5% 45.4%
Conference Champion 4.5% 8.8% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 3.3% 8.3%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 1.1%
First Round3.7% 7.4% 3.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 15.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 410 - 712 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 132   @ Toledo L 74-85 15%    
  Nov 10, 2023 58   @ Cincinnati L 66-84 5%    
  Nov 14, 2023 60   @ Mississippi L 63-81 5%    
  Nov 18, 2023 127   @ Ohio L 71-82 16%    
  Nov 21, 2023 315   Eastern Michigan W 80-74 70%    
  Nov 25, 2023 259   @ SIU Edwardsville L 74-77 38%    
  Nov 29, 2023 256   Oakland W 78-75 58%    
  Dec 02, 2023 187   @ Cleveland St. L 68-76 24%    
  Dec 06, 2023 234   Ball St. W 75-74 55%    
  Dec 10, 2023 47   @ Northwestern L 60-79 5%    
  Dec 18, 2023 116   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-81 15%    
  Dec 21, 2023 323   @ Central Michigan W 73-72 52%    
  Dec 23, 2023 61   @ North Carolina St. L 68-86 7%    
  Dec 29, 2023 347   @ IUPUI W 75-71 62%    
  Dec 31, 2023 305   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 04, 2024 340   Green Bay W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 06, 2024 217   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 79-80 50%    
  Jan 13, 2024 183   Northern Kentucky L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 17, 2024 285   @ Robert Morris L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 20, 2024 212   Youngstown St. L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 25, 2024 217   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 77-83 31%    
  Jan 27, 2024 340   @ Green Bay W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 01, 2024 187   Cleveland St. L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 03, 2024 285   Robert Morris W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 08, 2024 131   @ Wright St. L 74-85 19%    
  Feb 10, 2024 183   @ Northern Kentucky L 63-71 25%    
  Feb 14, 2024 347   IUPUI W 78-68 78%    
  Feb 17, 2024 305   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 22, 2024 131   Wright St. L 77-82 34%    
  Feb 28, 2024 212   @ Youngstown St. L 74-80 30%    
  Mar 02, 2024 256   @ Oakland L 75-78 39%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.1 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.9 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.2 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.3 3.6 1.3 0.1 11.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.7 2.7 0.8 0.1 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.0 5.6 7.2 9.1 10.4 11.0 10.6 9.5 8.6 6.9 5.4 3.4 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 95.6% 0.5    0.5 0.1
17-3 81.2% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 55.0% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.8% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 81.5% 81.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 60.4% 60.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.5% 31.9% 31.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
17-3 1.1% 25.0% 25.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
16-4 2.4% 22.5% 22.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.8
15-5 3.4% 16.6% 16.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.9
14-6 5.4% 11.5% 11.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 4.8
13-7 6.9% 7.6% 7.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 6.3
12-8 8.6% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.2
11-9 9.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.2
10-10 10.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.4
9-11 11.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.8
8-12 10.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.3
7-13 9.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.1
6-14 7.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.2
5-15 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.6
4-16 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
3-17 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%