Preseason Rankings
Horizon
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
131 Wright St. 32.7%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 15 - 5 +2.3      +2.9 96 -0.5 190 76.6 21 0.0 1 0.0 1
183 Northern Kentucky 16.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 13 - 7 -0.7      -1.3 225 +0.7 150 58.4 355 0.0 1 0.0 1
187 Cleveland St. 16.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 13 - 7 -0.8      -0.1 176 -0.7 196 64.8 270 0.0 1 0.0 1
212 Youngstown St. 10.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 12 - 8 -2.3      +2.1 114 -4.5 308 69.5 144 0.0 1 0.0 1
217 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 -2.6      +0.2 166 -2.8 260 77.5 18 0.0 1 0.0 1
256 Oakland 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 10 - 10 -5.2      -1.1 219 -4.1 300 70.2 128 0.0 1 0.0 1
265 Detroit Mercy 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 19 9 - 11 -5.6      +0.1 167 -5.8 341 67.6 185 0.0 1 0.0 1
285 Robert Morris 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 11 -6.7      -4.8 312 -1.9 230 65.7 244 0.0 1 0.0 1
305 Purdue Fort Wayne 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 12 -7.8      -3.9 295 -3.9 293 71.8 83 0.0 1 0.0 1
340 Green Bay 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 14 -11.1      -4.9 315 -6.2 346 63.9 286 0.0 1 0.0 1
347 IUPUI 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 15 -12.3      -6.7 347 -5.6 332 67.5 187 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Wright St. 2.6 40.6 20.8 13.4 8.9 6.3 4.2 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1
Northern Kentucky 3.7 20.7 18.4 15.9 12.3 10.0 8.0 5.7 4.2 2.7 1.5 0.5
Cleveland St. 3.8 19.5 17.7 15.5 13.1 10.8 8.2 6.2 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.6
Youngstown St. 4.5 12.8 14.0 14.1 13.4 11.7 10.2 8.5 6.4 4.7 2.8 1.3
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.6 11.9 13.4 13.7 13.3 11.8 10.5 8.9 7.0 4.9 3.1 1.5
Oakland 5.9 5.1 7.6 9.3 10.7 11.7 12.2 12.1 11.1 9.5 6.9 3.7
Detroit Mercy 6.1 4.5 6.8 8.6 10.2 11.7 12.0 12.3 11.5 10.2 7.6 4.5
Robert Morris 6.7 3.1 4.8 6.9 8.7 9.8 11.9 12.8 13.0 12.2 10.4 6.4
Purdue Fort Wayne 7.2 1.9 3.6 5.2 7.2 8.8 10.7 12.6 13.7 14.3 12.8 9.1
Green Bay 8.6 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.1 4.5 6.5 9.0 11.8 16.6 21.5 23.5
IUPUI 9.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.9 7.2 10.6 16.0 22.7 31.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Wright St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.6 4.2 5.8 7.7 9.6 11.1 12.6 13.0 11.8 9.3 5.9 2.4
Northern Kentucky 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.3 5.8 7.6 9.3 10.8 11.2 11.1 10.5 9.1 6.9 3.9 2.1 0.6
Cleveland St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.2 7.8 9.8 10.8 11.4 11.4 10.1 8.1 6.6 3.9 1.7 0.4
Youngstown St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.3 5.1 6.3 8.0 9.7 10.4 11.3 10.1 9.7 8.4 5.9 4.0 2.3 1.0 0.3
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.5 5.4 6.7 8.5 9.7 10.5 10.9 10.6 9.3 7.6 5.4 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.2
Oakland 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.2 7.0 8.7 10.2 10.5 10.5 10.2 9.1 7.3 5.8 4.0 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1
Detroit Mercy 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.0 5.6 7.2 9.1 10.4 11.0 10.6 9.5 8.6 6.9 5.4 3.4 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Robert Morris 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 5.5 7.3 9.2 10.0 10.8 10.9 10.1 8.6 6.9 5.5 3.8 2.6 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 8 - 12 0.3 1.1 2.9 4.9 6.8 8.7 10.5 10.9 10.9 10.1 9.3 7.5 5.9 4.1 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Green Bay 6 - 14 1.6 4.4 7.8 10.2 12.0 12.6 11.8 10.4 8.6 6.8 5.1 3.4 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
IUPUI 5 - 15 2.6 6.4 10.0 12.5 13.5 13.0 11.3 9.5 7.2 5.2 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wright St. 40.6% 30.7 8.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Kentucky 20.7% 13.9 5.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 19.5% 13.3 5.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Youngstown St. 12.8% 8.2 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11.9% 7.6 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
Oakland 5.1% 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 4.5% 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Robert Morris 3.1% 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 1.9% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
IUPUI 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wright St. 32.7% 32.5% 0.2% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.2 5.7 8.3 7.9 4.9 2.5 67.3 0.4%
Northern Kentucky 16.3% 16.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 4.5 3.5 2.5 83.7 0.1%
Cleveland St. 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.3 4.3 3.6 2.7 83.9 0.0%
Youngstown St. 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.7 2.9 2.2 89.2 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 90.1 0.0%
Oakland 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.7 95.5 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 95.8 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 97.1 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 98.0 0.0%
Green Bay 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%
IUPUI 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wright St. 32.7% 1.3% 32.2% 5.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 16.3% 1.4% 15.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 16.1% 1.3% 15.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 10.8% 1.2% 10.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9.9% 1.3% 9.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 4.5% 1.2% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 4.2% 1.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.9% 0.7% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 2.0% 0.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4 0.0
1st Round 95.2% 1.0 4.8 94.9 0.3
2nd Round 10.8% 0.1 89.2 10.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0