Preseason Rankings
Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#183
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace58.4#355
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#225
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#150
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 22.3% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 67.6% 83.4% 60.7%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 90.4% 79.8%
Conference Champion 20.7% 28.6% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.4% 1.4%
First Four1.4% 1.0% 1.5%
First Round15.7% 21.8% 13.0%
Second Round1.8% 3.2% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 30.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 413 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 61-67 30%    
  Nov 09, 2023 74   @ Washington L 60-71 15%    
  Nov 19, 2023 58   @ Cincinnati L 59-72 12%    
  Nov 22, 2023 283   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71-62 79%    
  Nov 25, 2023 359   LIU Brooklyn W 78-61 93%    
  Nov 29, 2023 285   Robert Morris W 67-58 79%    
  Dec 02, 2023 347   @ IUPUI W 68-59 78%    
  Dec 06, 2023 209   @ Illinois St. L 62-64 45%    
  Dec 09, 2023 114   Akron L 62-63 46%    
  Dec 17, 2023 134   @ Eastern Kentucky L 66-72 31%    
  Dec 21, 2023 26   @ St. Mary's L 50-66 9%    
  Dec 29, 2023 305   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 04, 2024 212   Youngstown St. W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 07, 2024 187   @ Cleveland St. L 62-65 41%    
  Jan 10, 2024 256   @ Oakland W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 13, 2024 265   @ Detroit Mercy W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 18, 2024 217   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 20, 2024 340   Green Bay W 70-57 87%    
  Jan 25, 2024 305   Purdue Fort Wayne W 71-61 80%    
  Jan 28, 2024 212   @ Youngstown St. L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 04, 2024 131   Wright St. L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 08, 2024 256   Oakland W 71-63 74%    
  Feb 10, 2024 265   Detroit Mercy W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 14, 2024 340   @ Green Bay W 67-60 73%    
  Feb 17, 2024 217   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 22, 2024 187   Cleveland St. W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 25, 2024 347   IUPUI W 71-56 89%    
  Feb 28, 2024 285   @ Robert Morris W 64-61 61%    
  Mar 02, 2024 131   @ Wright St. L 67-73 31%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.0 4.8 5.4 3.7 2.1 0.6 20.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.7 5.6 4.0 1.5 0.2 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.5 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.2 1.7 0.3 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 1.0 0.1 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.3 5.8 7.6 9.3 10.8 11.2 11.1 10.5 9.1 6.9 3.9 2.1 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.1    2.0 0.0
18-2 95.5% 3.7    3.2 0.5
17-3 78.2% 5.4    4.0 1.3 0.1
16-4 53.0% 4.8    2.7 1.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 28.7% 3.0    1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.1% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.7% 20.7 13.9 5.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 71.1% 66.1% 5.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14.7%
19-1 2.1% 59.1% 58.0% 1.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 2.5%
18-2 3.9% 45.3% 45.1% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.4%
17-3 6.9% 38.9% 38.9% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.2 0.0%
16-4 9.1% 30.1% 30.1% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 6.4
15-5 10.5% 22.4% 22.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 8.1
14-6 11.1% 16.1% 16.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 9.3
13-7 11.2% 12.5% 12.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 9.8
12-8 10.8% 7.5% 7.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 10.0
11-9 9.3% 5.9% 5.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 8.7
10-10 7.6% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.4
9-11 5.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.7
8-12 4.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.3
7-13 3.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.0
6-14 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.3% 16.2% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 4.5 3.5 2.5 83.7 0.1%