IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
TX A&M Corpus Christi
Southland
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.7	#283
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.4	#91
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.5	#257

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.2	#302

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.7%	31.5%	14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.4	14.8	15.4

.500 or above	47.4%	86.6%	47.2%
.500 or above in Conference	71.3%	93.7%	71.2%
Conference Champion	18.1%	35.6%	18.0%
Last Place in Conference	4.4%	0.8%	4.4%

First Four	6.0%	4.7%	6.0%
First Round	11.5%	28.5%	11.4%
Second Round	0.4%	1.6%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 4	12 - 8	13 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2023	4	@ Houston	L	55-81	1%
Nov 16, 2023	41	@ Texas Tech	L	63-83	3%
Nov 22, 2023	183	@ Northern Kentucky	L	62-71	21%
Nov 24, 2023	359	LIU Brooklyn	W	83-75	76%
Nov 29, 2023	155	@ UTEP	L	66-76	17%
Dec 06, 2023	263	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	81-79	57%
Dec 09, 2023	296	Nebraska Omaha	W	78-74	62%
Dec 15, 2023	263	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	78-82	37%
Dec 22, 2023	15	@ Texas	L	63-87	2%
Jan 06, 2024	348	@ Incarnate Word	W	75-72	60%
Jan 08, 2024	360	Houston Christian	W	85-74	83%
Jan 13, 2024	299	@ New Orleans	L	79-81	43%
Jan 15, 2024	268	@ SE Louisiana	L	75-79	37%
Jan 20, 2024	284	Nicholls St.	W	79-76	60%
Jan 22, 2024	271	McNeese St.	W	75-73	58%
Jan 27, 2024	337	@ Northwestern St.	W	74-73	54%
Jan 29, 2024	291	@ Texas A&M - Commerce	L	70-73	41%
Feb 03, 2024	341	Lamar	W	76-68	74%
Feb 10, 2024	271	@ McNeese St.	L	72-76	38%
Feb 12, 2024	284	@ Nicholls St.	L	76-79	40%
Feb 17, 2024	291	Texas A&M - Commerce	W	73-70	60%
Feb 19, 2024	337	Northwestern St.	W	77-70	73%
Feb 24, 2024	341	@ Lamar	W	73-71	55%
Feb 26, 2024	360	@ Houston Christian	W	82-77	66%
Mar 02, 2024	268	SE Louisiana	W	78-76	57%
Mar 04, 2024	299	New Orleans	W	82-78	63%
Mar 06, 2024	348	Incarnate Word	W	78-69	76%
Projected Record						13 - 14	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.9	2.7	4.3	4.6	3.3	1.6	0.5		18.1	1st
2nd											0.2	1.7	4.3	5.0	2.9	0.8	0.1				14.9	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	2.0	5.0	4.3	1.8	0.2	0.0					13.5	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.0	5.1	4.0	1.0	0.1							12.3	4th
5th								0.2	1.9	4.7	3.4	0.7	0.0								10.9	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	1.7	4.1	2.9	0.5	0.0									9.5	6th
7th					0.0	0.3	1.6	3.2	2.3	0.4	0.0										7.9	7th
8th			0.0	0.0	0.3	1.4	2.5	1.6	0.3	0.0											6.2	8th
9th		0.0	0.0	0.5	1.1	1.5	0.9	0.1	0.0												4.2	9th
10th	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0													2.6	10th

Total	0.0	0.3	0.5	1.2	2.2	3.5	5.3	6.9	8.8	10.2	11.2	11.4	10.5	9.6	7.4	5.4	3.4	1.6	0.5			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
17-1	100.0%	1.6		1.6	0.0
16-2	97.3%	3.3		3.0	0.3
15-3	84.3%	4.6		3.6	0.9	0.0
14-4	58.0%	4.3		2.3	1.7	0.3	0.0
13-5	28.5%	2.7		0.9	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	8.7%	0.9		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0									0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	18.1%	18.1		12.1	4.5	1.1	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.5%		83.1%	82.3%	0.9%	13.5						0.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1		4.9%
17-1	1.6%		72.0%	72.0%		14.4												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.5
16-2	3.4%		54.9%	54.9%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.5	1.6
15-3	5.4%		43.7%	43.7%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.1	3.0
14-4	7.4%		32.9%	32.9%		15.6														0.0	0.2	0.7	1.6	5.0
13-5	9.6%		23.7%	23.7%		15.8													0.0		0.1	0.4	1.8	7.4
12-6	10.5%		14.9%	14.9%		15.9															0.0	0.1	1.4	9.0
11-7	11.4%		10.4%	10.4%		16.0																0.0	1.2	10.2
10-8	11.2%		6.7%	6.7%		16.0																0.0	0.7	10.4
9-9	10.2%		4.0%	4.0%		16.0																	0.4	9.8
8-10	8.8%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.2	8.6
7-11	6.9%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	6.8
6-12	5.3%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	5.3
5-13	3.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.5
4-14	2.2%																							2.2
3-15	1.2%																							1.2
2-16	0.5%																							0.5
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	15.4						0.0					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.5	3.5	9.1	85.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%