Preseason Rankings
Southland
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
268 SE Louisiana 18.5%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 11 - 7 -5.8      -0.6 198 -5.3 329 70.9 108 0.0 1 0.0 1
271 McNeese St. 18.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 11 - 7 -5.9      -0.8 210 -5.1 326 65.8 240 0.0 1 0.0 1
283 TX A&M Corpus Christi 14.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 8 -6.7      -2.5 257 -4.2 302 71.4 91 0.0 1 0.0 1
284 Nicholls St. 14.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 8 -6.7      -2.8 264 -3.9 295 75.1 31 0.0 1 0.0 1
291 Texas A&M - Commerce 13.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -6.9      -3.1 272 -3.8 292 64.7 273 0.0 1 0.0 1
299 New Orleans 11.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 10 - 8 -7.5      -1.6 235 -5.8 344 76.5 22 0.0 1 0.0 1
337 Northwestern St. 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 10 -10.8      -4.8 309 -6.1 345 66.3 222 0.0 1 0.0 1
341 Lamar 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -11.4      -6.0 336 -5.4 331 65.3 262 0.0 1 0.0 1
348 Incarnate Word 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 7 - 11 -12.4      -5.7 329 -6.7 349 67.3 197 0.0 1 0.0 1
360 Houston Christian 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 21 5 - 13 -14.9      -4.6 306 -10.3 362 74.7 37 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
SE Louisiana 3.8 21.8 16.7 14.4 12.1 10.1 8.2 6.5 5.0 3.4 1.8
McNeese St. 3.9 21.4 16.8 13.8 11.9 10.1 8.4 7.0 5.2 3.4 2.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.2 18.1 14.9 13.5 12.3 10.9 9.5 7.9 6.2 4.2 2.6
Nicholls St. 4.2 17.5 15.6 13.6 12.3 10.6 9.4 7.9 6.4 4.2 2.5
Texas A&M - Commerce 4.3 16.7 14.6 13.6 12.5 11.2 9.6 8.3 6.2 4.6 2.7
New Orleans 4.6 14.2 13.4 12.8 12.2 11.4 10.3 9.3 7.5 5.7 3.2
Northwestern St. 6.1 5.1 6.5 7.9 9.2 10.7 11.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 10.0
Lamar 6.3 4.3 5.9 7.2 8.6 10.2 11.7 12.8 13.7 13.8 11.7
Incarnate Word 6.9 2.7 4.3 5.5 7.2 8.7 10.6 13.2 15.3 16.6 15.8
Houston Christian 7.8 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.2 5.7 8.2 10.8 14.7 20.2 30.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
SE Louisiana 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.9 2.6 4.2 5.9 7.5 9.4 10.7 11.9 11.7 10.7 8.7 6.7 4.3 2.1 0.6
McNeese St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.6 4.6 6.2 7.9 9.7 10.3 11.8 11.0 10.4 8.5 6.8 4.3 2.1 0.7
TX A&M Corpus Christi 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.3 6.9 8.8 10.2 11.2 11.4 10.5 9.6 7.4 5.4 3.4 1.6 0.5
Nicholls St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.6 5.2 7.2 8.8 10.0 11.0 11.6 10.9 9.4 7.7 5.3 3.4 1.5 0.4
Texas A&M - Commerce 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.5 7.2 8.9 10.4 11.4 11.3 10.8 9.0 7.3 5.2 3.0 1.4 0.3
New Orleans 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.5 6.4 8.2 9.8 10.4 11.2 11.0 10.0 8.2 6.1 4.5 2.5 1.0 0.3
Northwestern St. 8 - 10 0.3 1.4 3.1 4.9 7.3 9.2 10.7 11.1 11.6 10.4 8.9 7.3 5.4 3.9 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Lamar 7 - 11 0.5 1.7 3.7 5.7 8.1 9.6 11.0 11.5 11.1 9.9 8.6 6.8 4.9 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Incarnate Word 7 - 11 0.8 2.6 4.9 7.3 9.8 11.4 12.2 11.5 10.5 8.6 7.2 5.2 3.5 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Houston Christian 5 - 13 2.3 5.8 9.6 11.9 12.8 12.6 11.5 9.7 7.8 5.6 4.3 2.7 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
SE Louisiana 21.8% 15.0 5.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
McNeese St. 21.4% 14.5 5.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 18.1% 12.1 4.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 17.5% 11.5 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 16.7% 11.0 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 14.2% 9.4 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 5.1% 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lamar 4.3% 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 2.7% 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 1.1% 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
SE Louisiana 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.6 10.9 81.5 0.0%
McNeese St. 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.4 10.7 81.9 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.5 9.1 85.3 0.0%
Nicholls St. 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.6 8.9 85.5 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.3 8.5 86.6 0.0%
New Orleans 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 7.6 88.6 0.0%
Northwestern St. 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.9 96.4 0.0%
Lamar 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.7 96.7 0.0%
Incarnate Word 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7 98.1 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
SE Louisiana 18.5% 7.0% 14.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 18.1% 6.8% 14.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 14.7% 6.0% 11.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 14.5% 6.1% 11.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 13.4% 5.3% 10.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 11.4% 5.1% 8.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 3.6% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 3.3% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 76.9% 0.8 23.1 76.9 0.0
2nd Round 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0