IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Incarnate Word
Southland
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-12.4	#348
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.3	#197
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.7	#329

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.7	#349

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.9%	8.2%	1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.2	15.8

.500 or above	11.7%	53.5%	11.6%
.500 or above in Conference	29.1%	61.4%	29.0%
Conference Champion	2.7%	4.5%	2.7%
Last Place in Conference	22.7%	7.9%	22.7%

First Four	1.3%	0.2%	1.3%
First Round	1.2%	8.2%	1.2%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas (Away) - 0.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	0 - 5	1 - 6
Quad 4	9 - 14	9 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	15	@ Texas	L	57-87	0.2%
Nov 11, 2023	233	@ Tulsa	L	66-78	14%
Nov 18, 2023	346	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	L	71-74	38%
Nov 22, 2023	221	Jacksonville St.	L	65-71	28%
Nov 25, 2023	249	@ Texas San Antonio	L	69-80	17%
Nov 26, 2023	221	Jacksonville St.	L	64-73	21%
Dec 01, 2023	349	@ Bethune-Cookman	L	71-74	40%
Dec 09, 2023	231	Northern Arizona	L	69-75	30%
Dec 13, 2023	178	@ Rice	L	68-83	10%
Dec 21, 2023	244	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	67-78	17%
Dec 30, 2023	263	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	72-82	20%
Jan 06, 2024	283	TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	72-75	40%
Jan 08, 2024	341	@ Lamar	L	67-71	36%
Jan 13, 2024	337	@ Northwestern St.	L	68-73	35%
Jan 15, 2024	291	@ Texas A&M - Commerce	L	65-74	24%
Jan 20, 2024	271	McNeese St.	L	70-74	39%
Jan 22, 2024	284	Nicholls St.	L	73-76	41%
Jan 27, 2024	360	Houston Christian	W	80-75	67%
Feb 03, 2024	299	@ New Orleans	L	73-81	25%
Feb 05, 2024	268	@ SE Louisiana	L	70-80	21%
Feb 10, 2024	360	@ Houston Christian	L	77-78	48%
Feb 12, 2024	341	Lamar	W	70-68	56%
Feb 17, 2024	337	Northwestern St.	W	71-70	55%
Feb 19, 2024	291	Texas A&M - Commerce	L	68-71	42%
Feb 24, 2024	271	@ McNeese St.	L	67-77	22%
Feb 26, 2024	284	@ Nicholls St.	L	70-79	24%
Mar 02, 2024	299	New Orleans	L	76-78	43%
Mar 04, 2024	268	SE Louisiana	L	73-77	38%
Mar 06, 2024	283	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	69-78	24%
Projected Record						9 - 20	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0		2.7	1st
2nd											0.1	0.8	1.5	1.2	0.6	0.1	0.0				4.3	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.3	2.3	1.4	0.3	0.0	0.0					5.5	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.7	3.3	1.7	0.3	0.0							7.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.2	3.8	2.2	0.3	0.0								8.7	5th
6th						0.0	0.4	2.6	4.7	2.5	0.3	0.0									10.6	6th
7th					0.1	0.7	3.6	5.4	3.0	0.4	0.0										13.2	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.6	4.5	5.8	2.9	0.4	0.0											15.3	8th
9th		0.1	0.7	2.8	5.3	5.1	2.2	0.3	0.0												16.6	9th
10th	0.8	2.5	4.1	4.3	2.9	1.1	0.1	0.0													15.8	10th

Total	0.8	2.6	4.9	7.3	9.8	11.4	12.2	11.5	10.5	8.6	7.2	5.2	3.5	2.2	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	96.6%	0.2		0.2	0.0
15-3	84.9%	0.6		0.5	0.1	0.0
14-4	57.5%	0.8		0.5	0.3	0.1
13-5	28.1%	0.6		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	9.5%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.1%	0.0								0.0	0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.7%	2.7		1.5	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		64.0%	64.0%		14.1															0.0		0.0	0.0
17-1	0.1%		45.0%	45.0%		14.8															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
16-2	0.2%		43.1%	43.1%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
15-3	0.7%		28.9%	28.9%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5
14-4	1.4%		22.2%	22.2%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.3	1.1
13-5	2.2%		12.8%	12.8%		15.9																0.0	0.3	1.9
12-6	3.5%		9.2%	9.2%		15.9																0.0	0.3	3.2
11-7	5.2%		4.7%	4.7%		16.0																0.0	0.2	4.9
10-8	7.2%		2.9%	2.9%		16.0																0.0	0.2	7.0
9-9	8.6%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.1	8.5
8-10	10.5%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	10.4
7-11	11.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.5
6-12	12.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.2
5-13	11.4%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.4
4-14	9.8%																							9.8
3-15	7.3%																							7.3
2-16	4.9%																							4.9
1-17	2.6%																							2.6
0-18	0.8%																							0.8

Total	100%		1.9%	1.9%	0.0%	15.8														0.0	0.1	0.2	1.7	98.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%