Preseason Rankings
Northwestern St.
Southland
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-10.8#337
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.3#222
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#309
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#345
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 10.4% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 12.9% 37.6% 11.8%
.500 or above in Conference 40.4% 63.7% 39.3%
Conference Champion 5.1% 12.9% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 15.6% 5.6% 16.0%
First Four2.2% 4.8% 2.1%
First Round2.2% 7.6% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 4.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 49 - 1110 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 99   @ Tulane L 69-87 4%    
  Nov 13, 2023 115   Stephen F. Austin L 67-78 15%    
  Nov 15, 2023 264   Maine L 66-71 32%    
  Nov 17, 2023 280   @ North Florida L 70-77 25%    
  Nov 18, 2023 322   Presbyterian L 65-67 43%    
  Nov 28, 2023 287   @ Louisiana Monroe L 65-72 27%    
  Dec 02, 2023 14   @ Baylor L 58-86 1%    
  Dec 09, 2023 152   @ Southern Miss L 64-79 9%    
  Dec 12, 2023 54   @ Boise St. L 57-80 2%    
  Dec 16, 2023 178   Rice L 72-79 26%    
  Dec 29, 2023 56   @ LSU L 57-80 2%    
  Jan 06, 2024 341   @ Lamar L 68-70 41%    
  Jan 08, 2024 271   McNeese St. L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 13, 2024 348   Incarnate Word W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 15, 2024 360   Houston Christian W 80-73 72%    
  Jan 20, 2024 299   @ New Orleans L 74-80 30%    
  Jan 22, 2024 268   @ SE Louisiana L 70-78 25%    
  Jan 27, 2024 283   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 29, 2024 271   @ McNeese St. L 67-75 26%    
  Feb 03, 2024 291   Texas A&M - Commerce L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 05, 2024 284   @ Nicholls St. L 71-78 28%    
  Feb 10, 2024 268   SE Louisiana L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 12, 2024 299   New Orleans L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 17, 2024 348   @ Incarnate Word L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 19, 2024 283   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 24, 2024 360   @ Houston Christian W 77-76 54%    
  Mar 02, 2024 341   Lamar W 71-67 61%    
  Mar 04, 2024 284   Nicholls St. L 74-75 46%    
  Mar 06, 2024 291   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 66-73 28%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.2 5.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 5.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.9 4.0 4.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.9 9th
10th 0.3 1.3 2.5 2.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.0 10th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.1 4.9 7.3 9.2 10.7 11.1 11.6 10.4 8.9 7.3 5.4 3.9 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 97.7% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 84.7% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 61.8% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 29.5% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.9% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 63.2% 63.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 45.7% 45.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 40.7% 40.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
15-3 1.3% 34.5% 34.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8
14-4 2.5% 21.2% 21.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0
13-5 3.9% 16.3% 16.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.3
12-6 5.4% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.8
11-7 7.3% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 6.9
10-8 8.9% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.4 8.5
9-9 10.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.3
8-10 11.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.5
7-11 11.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.0
6-12 10.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.7
5-13 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.2
4-14 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.3
3-15 4.9% 4.9
2-16 3.1% 3.1
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.9 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%