Preseason Rankings
Boise St.
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#54
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.1#228
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#72
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.6% 3.3% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 7.2% 9.0% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 12.9% 15.8% 4.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.3% 44.4% 24.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.5% 33.4% 15.4%
Average Seed 7.9 7.7 9.2
.500 or above 79.6% 85.2% 63.2%
.500 or above in Conference 78.0% 81.6% 67.6%
Conference Champion 20.1% 22.8% 12.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.7% 4.4%
First Four4.7% 5.2% 3.3%
First Round36.9% 41.8% 22.7%
Second Round20.9% 24.4% 10.9%
Sweet Sixteen8.9% 10.6% 3.9%
Elite Eight3.8% 4.8% 1.1%
Final Four1.7% 2.2% 0.4%
Championship Game0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 74.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 37 - 213 - 10
Quad 44 - 017 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2023 92   San Francisco W 74-67 74%    
  Nov 19, 2023 45   @ Clemson L 68-72 36%    
  Nov 23, 2023 57   Virginia Tech W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 01, 2023 26   St. Mary's L 61-64 39%    
  Dec 05, 2023 90   North Texas W 61-54 73%    
  Dec 12, 2023 337   Northwestern St. W 80-57 98%    
  Dec 17, 2023 161   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-60 85%    
  Dec 22, 2023 86   Washington St. W 67-64 61%    
  Dec 29, 2023 164   Utah Valley W 76-64 84%    
  Jan 05, 2024 147   @ San Jose St. W 66-61 66%    
  Jan 09, 2024 71   Colorado St. W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 12, 2024 79   @ Nevada L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 16, 2024 91   UNLV W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 20, 2024 31   San Diego St. W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 23, 2024 111   @ Fresno St. W 65-62 59%    
  Jan 27, 2024 83   Utah St. W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 31, 2024 55   @ New Mexico L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 03, 2024 166   Air Force W 70-58 84%    
  Feb 06, 2024 71   @ Colorado St. L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 10, 2024 83   @ Utah St. L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 17, 2024 111   Fresno St. W 68-59 76%    
  Feb 20, 2024 147   San Jose St. W 69-58 81%    
  Feb 24, 2024 163   @ Wyoming W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 27, 2024 166   @ Air Force W 67-61 68%    
  Mar 02, 2024 55   New Mexico W 78-75 60%    
  Mar 05, 2024 79   Nevada W 71-65 67%    
  Mar 08, 2024 31   @ San Diego St. L 62-68 32%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.4 5.6 4.4 2.3 0.7 20.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.9 6.1 4.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.1 5.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.0 4.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.1 1.4 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.6 1.2 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.9 1.1 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.4 0.9 0.1 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.7 7.1 9.0 10.6 11.3 11.6 11.2 9.4 7.3 4.6 2.3 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.8% 2.3    2.3 0.0
16-2 94.4% 4.4    3.8 0.6 0.0
15-3 76.1% 5.6    4.0 1.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 46.6% 4.4    2.1 1.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 19.7% 2.2    0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 13.5 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 99.9% 56.5% 43.5% 1.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
17-1 2.3% 99.4% 43.2% 56.1% 3.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
16-2 4.6% 97.1% 36.3% 60.8% 4.5 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.4%
15-3 7.3% 91.9% 30.8% 61.2% 6.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 88.4%
14-4 9.4% 80.6% 23.9% 56.7% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.8 74.5%
13-5 11.2% 63.5% 17.0% 46.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.1 56.0%
12-6 11.6% 41.0% 15.4% 25.6% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.8 30.3%
11-7 11.3% 24.4% 12.2% 12.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5 14.0%
10-8 10.6% 13.6% 9.9% 3.7% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.2 4.1%
9-9 9.0% 6.8% 5.9% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.4 1.0%
8-10 7.1% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.7 0.0%
7-11 5.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.5
6-12 3.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.8
5-13 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.5
4-14 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 39.3% 15.0% 24.2% 7.9 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.6 4.2 5.9 6.1 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 60.7 28.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 63.4 34.2 2.5