Preseason Rankings
Air Force
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#166
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.4#345
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#213
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#133
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.4% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.7 11.5 13.1
.500 or above 50.2% 58.6% 29.8%
.500 or above in Conference 21.4% 25.0% 12.8%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.6% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 29.2% 25.1% 39.2%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
First Round2.6% 3.1% 1.2%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 34 - 56 - 13
Quad 49 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 211   Portland St. W 74-68 71%    
  Nov 10, 2023 359   @ LIU Brooklyn W 76-64 87%    
  Nov 12, 2023 194   @ Delaware L 65-66 45%    
  Nov 16, 2023 356   Lindenwood W 75-58 94%    
  Nov 17, 2023 302   William & Mary W 69-58 84%    
  Nov 19, 2023 296   Nebraska Omaha W 73-62 82%    
  Nov 22, 2023 351   VMI W 74-58 92%    
  Nov 26, 2023 304   @ South Dakota W 68-63 68%    
  Dec 03, 2023 174   @ Portland L 69-71 42%    
  Dec 09, 2023 169   Eastern Washington W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 16, 2023 200   Texas Arlington W 65-63 56%    
  Dec 21, 2023 251   Northern Colorado W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 02, 2024 83   Utah St. L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 09, 2024 79   @ Nevada L 60-69 22%    
  Jan 13, 2024 147   San Jose St. W 62-60 57%    
  Jan 16, 2024 71   @ Colorado St. L 61-71 20%    
  Jan 20, 2024 55   New Mexico L 69-75 32%    
  Jan 23, 2024 91   @ UNLV L 64-72 25%    
  Jan 27, 2024 111   @ Fresno St. L 58-64 30%    
  Jan 30, 2024 163   Wyoming W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 03, 2024 54   @ Boise St. L 58-70 16%    
  Feb 06, 2024 31   San Diego St. L 58-67 24%    
  Feb 10, 2024 111   Fresno St. L 60-61 49%    
  Feb 13, 2024 147   @ San Jose St. L 59-63 38%    
  Feb 21, 2024 91   UNLV L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 24, 2024 55   @ New Mexico L 66-78 17%    
  Feb 27, 2024 54   Boise St. L 61-67 32%    
  Mar 01, 2024 83   @ Utah St. L 63-72 23%    
  Mar 05, 2024 163   @ Wyoming L 63-66 40%    
  Mar 09, 2024 71   Colorado St. L 64-68 37%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.9 3.8 0.8 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.5 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 4.8 1.5 0.1 14.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.0 6.4 4.7 1.3 0.1 17.7 10th
11th 1.4 4.0 5.8 5.7 3.1 0.8 0.1 20.8 11th
Total 1.4 4.1 7.0 10.0 11.9 12.3 11.6 10.8 9.6 7.3 5.6 3.8 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 76.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 53.1% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 33.7% 66.3% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.1% 92.1% 29.1% 63.0% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.8%
15-3 0.4% 62.4% 16.7% 45.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 54.9%
14-4 0.8% 43.0% 14.8% 28.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 33.1%
13-5 1.3% 27.6% 12.0% 15.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 17.7%
12-6 2.2% 11.0% 6.7% 4.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0 4.6%
11-7 3.8% 6.5% 5.4% 1.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.5 1.1%
10-8 5.6% 4.3% 4.1% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.2%
9-9 7.3% 3.4% 3.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.0
8-10 9.6% 2.7% 2.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.3
7-11 10.8% 1.5% 1.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.6
6-12 11.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5
5-13 12.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.2
4-14 11.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.8
3-15 10.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 10.0
2-16 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
1-17 4.1% 4.1
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 2.8% 2.0% 0.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 97.2 0.9%