IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.6	#302
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.8	#290
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.9	#294

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.7	#287

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.6%	0.9%	0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.6	15.4

.500 or above	20.0%	28.5%	10.3%
.500 or above in Conference	27.0%	33.3%	19.8%
Conference Champion	0.6%	0.9%	0.3%
Last Place in Conference	14.6%	10.2%	19.5%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
First Round	0.5%	0.8%	0.3%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: American (Home) - 53.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 8	11 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2023	261	American	W	64-63	53%
Nov 11, 2023	238	@ George Washington	L	69-76	27%
Nov 16, 2023	296	Nebraska Omaha	L	70-71	48%
Nov 17, 2023	166	@ Air Force	L	58-69	16%
Nov 19, 2023	356	Lindenwood	W	72-66	71%
Nov 25, 2023	292	Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	71-69	59%
Nov 28, 2023	248	@ Norfolk St.	L	64-70	30%
Dec 02, 2023	129	@ Richmond	L	59-72	13%
Dec 06, 2023	180	Old Dominion	L	62-66	36%
Dec 21, 2023	191	@ Pepperdine	L	70-80	20%
Dec 30, 2023	277	@ Navy	L	62-66	35%
Jan 04, 2024	309	Elon	W	69-65	62%
Jan 06, 2024	125	Drexel	L	60-67	27%
Jan 11, 2024	312	@ Hampton	L	70-72	42%
Jan 13, 2024	255	Stony Brook	W	65-64	52%
Jan 18, 2024	294	Campbell	W	66-64	58%
Jan 20, 2024	352	@ N.C. A&T	W	71-69	57%
Jan 25, 2024	112	@ Hofstra	L	62-76	12%
Jan 27, 2024	228	@ Northeastern	L	63-70	28%
Feb 01, 2024	194	Delaware	L	67-70	39%
Feb 03, 2024	80	College of Charleston	L	68-79	17%
Feb 08, 2024	311	@ Monmouth	L	67-69	43%
Feb 10, 2024	194	@ Delaware	L	64-73	22%
Feb 15, 2024	158	Towson	L	63-68	33%
Feb 19, 2024	80	@ College of Charleston	L	65-82	8%
Feb 22, 2024	140	UNC Wilmington	L	63-69	30%
Feb 24, 2024	255	@ Stony Brook	L	62-67	33%
Feb 29, 2024	309	@ Elon	L	66-68	42%
Mar 02, 2024	312	Hampton	W	73-69	62%
Projected Record						11 - 18	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.6	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0				1.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.4	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.0					2.6	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	1.5	1.3	0.3	0.0						3.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	2.2	2.0	0.5	0.0							5.0	5th
6th								0.0	0.5	2.3	2.9	0.9	0.1	0.0							6.6	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	2.5	3.7	1.2	0.1									7.8	7th
8th							0.2	2.2	4.5	2.0	0.2										9.0	8th
9th						0.1	1.6	4.8	2.9	0.4	0.0										9.8	9th
10th					0.1	1.5	4.9	3.9	0.7	0.0											11.1	10th
11th				0.1	1.2	4.8	4.3	0.9	0.0												11.4	11th
12th			0.1	1.3	4.2	4.5	1.3	0.1													11.4	12th
13th		0.3	1.9	4.1	3.5	1.2	0.1														11.1	13th
14th	0.7	2.0	3.1	2.1	0.6	0.1	0.0														8.7	14th

Total	0.7	2.3	5.1	7.6	9.6	12.2	12.3	12.1	11.1	8.9	6.9	4.8	3.1	1.8	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	87.3%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	55.2%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	18.6%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-5	3.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.6%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																							0.0
17-1	0.0%		32.5%	22.1%	10.4%	11.7												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		13.3%
16-2	0.1%		12.0%	12.0%		13.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
15-3	0.4%		12.8%	12.8%		13.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
14-4	0.9%		7.9%	7.9%		13.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9
13-5	1.8%		3.2%	3.2%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7
12-6	3.1%		2.7%	2.7%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0
11-7	4.8%		2.2%	2.2%		15.1															0.0	0.1	0.0	4.7
10-8	6.9%		1.2%	1.2%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.8
9-9	8.9%		0.7%	0.7%		15.7																0.0	0.0	8.8
8-10	11.1%		0.3%	0.3%		15.8																0.0	0.0	11.0
7-11	12.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.1
6-12	12.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.3
5-13	12.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	12.2
4-14	9.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.6
3-15	7.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.6
2-16	5.1%																							5.1
1-17	2.3%																							2.3
0-18	0.7%																							0.7

Total	100%		0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	14.8												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	99.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%