Preseason Rankings
Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#255
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.9#329
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#280
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#228
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 3.7% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.6 14.6
.500 or above 30.6% 61.9% 29.2%
.500 or above in Conference 42.2% 63.4% 41.3%
Conference Champion 1.8% 5.0% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 1.8% 7.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round1.5% 3.4% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 4.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 52 - 11
Quad 410 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 44   @ St. John's L 64-83 4%    
  Nov 13, 2023 94   @ Duquesne L 62-75 11%    
  Nov 15, 2023 67   @ Nebraska L 58-74 7%    
  Nov 20, 2023 230   Rider W 66-65 55%    
  Nov 29, 2023 68   @ Yale L 57-73 8%    
  Dec 02, 2023 298   Wagner W 62-57 68%    
  Dec 06, 2023 350   Stonehill W 71-61 81%    
  Dec 09, 2023 208   Bryant L 73-74 50%    
  Dec 13, 2023 248   Norfolk St. W 67-64 59%    
  Dec 17, 2023 300   @ Army L 67-68 47%    
  Dec 21, 2023 5   @ Michigan St. L 52-77 2%    
  Dec 29, 2023 185   Brown L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 04, 2024 228   @ Northeastern L 62-67 35%    
  Jan 06, 2024 80   College of Charleston L 67-76 22%    
  Jan 11, 2024 158   @ Towson L 60-69 23%    
  Jan 13, 2024 302   @ William & Mary L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 18, 2024 194   @ Delaware L 63-70 28%    
  Jan 22, 2024 112   Hofstra L 65-71 32%    
  Jan 25, 2024 311   Monmouth W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 27, 2024 140   UNC Wilmington L 62-66 37%    
  Feb 01, 2024 112   @ Hofstra L 62-74 16%    
  Feb 03, 2024 228   Northeastern W 65-64 55%    
  Feb 08, 2024 309   @ Elon L 65-66 50%    
  Feb 10, 2024 294   @ Campbell L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 15, 2024 312   Hampton W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 17, 2024 311   @ Monmouth W 67-66 50%    
  Feb 22, 2024 352   N.C. A&T W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 24, 2024 302   William & Mary W 67-62 67%    
  Feb 29, 2024 125   @ Drexel L 56-67 19%    
  Mar 02, 2024 194   Delaware L 66-67 47%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.7 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.6 0.7 0.1 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.0 1.3 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.9 1.8 0.1 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 5.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.3 3.5 0.6 0.0 9.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 3.8 3.7 0.9 0.0 9.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.1 1.0 0.1 8.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.3 13th
14th 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.6 14th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.2 6.5 9.0 10.9 12.0 12.0 11.4 9.4 7.8 5.7 3.8 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 99.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 82.0% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 48.5% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 23.6% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 41.4% 27.6% 13.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.0%
17-1 0.1% 14.3% 11.1% 3.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.7%
16-2 0.4% 18.2% 18.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.1% 14.9% 14.6% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.4%
14-4 2.4% 10.1% 10.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2
13-5 3.8% 6.3% 6.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.6
12-6 5.7% 4.5% 4.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.5
11-7 7.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.6
10-8 9.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.3
9-9 11.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.3
8-10 12.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.9
7-11 12.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.0
6-12 10.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.9
5-13 9.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.0
4-14 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.5
3-15 4.2% 4.2
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%