Preseason Rankings
Yale
Ivy League
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#68
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.9#236
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#80
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#57
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 2.1% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 2.3% 7.6% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 4.6% 13.5% 2.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.6% 67.3% 50.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.6% 16.1% 4.0%
Average Seed 11.1 9.6 11.5
.500 or above 93.0% 98.8% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 96.5% 98.9% 96.0%
Conference Champion 61.3% 73.7% 58.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four1.7% 2.3% 1.6%
First Round52.9% 66.3% 50.3%
Second Round18.4% 30.1% 16.1%
Sweet Sixteen6.7% 12.0% 5.7%
Elite Eight2.3% 5.0% 1.8%
Final Four0.9% 2.4% 0.7%
Championship Game0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 16.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 37 - 39 - 7
Quad 410 - 119 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 10   @ Gonzaga L 70-80 16%    
  Nov 12, 2023 116   @ Loyola Marymount W 71-69 57%    
  Nov 17, 2023 110   Colgate W 74-70 65%    
  Nov 18, 2023 160   Weber St. W 69-62 75%    
  Nov 19, 2023 195   Gardner-Webb W 70-61 79%    
  Nov 26, 2023 190   @ Rhode Island W 70-64 70%    
  Nov 29, 2023 255   Stony Brook W 73-57 92%    
  Dec 02, 2023 108   @ Vermont W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 06, 2023 257   Fairfield W 73-57 92%    
  Dec 11, 2023 232   @ Quinnipiac W 76-68 77%    
  Dec 22, 2023 1   @ Kansas L 64-78 11%    
  Dec 30, 2023 144   @ Santa Clara W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 03, 2024 247   @ Howard W 78-68 79%    
  Jan 09, 2024 185   @ Brown W 72-66 68%    
  Jan 15, 2024 303   Columbia W 81-62 94%    
  Jan 20, 2024 243   @ Dartmouth W 74-65 78%    
  Jan 27, 2024 219   @ Harvard W 70-62 73%    
  Feb 02, 2024 130   Princeton W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 03, 2024 203   Penn W 77-64 86%    
  Feb 10, 2024 157   Cornell W 81-71 80%    
  Feb 16, 2024 203   @ Penn W 74-67 71%    
  Feb 17, 2024 130   @ Princeton W 71-68 58%    
  Feb 23, 2024 157   @ Cornell W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 24, 2024 303   @ Columbia W 78-65 85%    
  Mar 01, 2024 243   Dartmouth W 77-62 90%    
  Mar 02, 2024 219   Harvard W 73-59 87%    
  Mar 09, 2024 185   Brown W 75-63 83%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.7 12.0 17.5 16.7 9.6 61.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.5 7.6 5.6 1.5 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.0 1.5 0.1 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.2 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.7 6.2 9.8 13.7 17.6 19.0 16.7 9.6 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 9.6    9.6
13-1 100.0% 16.7    16.2 0.5
12-2 92.2% 17.5    14.2 3.3 0.0
11-3 67.8% 12.0    7.1 4.3 0.5 0.0
10-4 34.1% 4.7    1.5 2.2 0.9 0.1
9-5 8.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 61.3% 61.3 48.7 10.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 9.6% 90.5% 82.1% 8.3% 7.6 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.9 46.7%
13-1 16.7% 78.6% 71.9% 6.7% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.6 4.5 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.6 23.8%
12-2 19.0% 63.2% 60.0% 3.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 3.8 4.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.0 8.1%
11-3 17.6% 50.3% 49.2% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.8 2.1%
10-4 13.7% 39.6% 39.5% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.3 0.1%
9-5 9.8% 32.1% 32.0% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 6.7 0.1%
8-6 6.2% 22.2% 22.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 4.9
7-7 3.7% 16.4% 16.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 3.1
6-8 1.8% 10.7% 10.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6
5-9 1.0% 7.7% 7.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9
4-10 0.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-11 0.2% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 53.6% 50.9% 2.7% 11.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.8 3.3 11.8 15.3 8.6 3.4 1.5 0.8 46.4 5.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.1 41.1 25.3 18.9 14.8