Preseason Rankings
Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#10
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.2#41
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.9#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#59
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 1.7% 0.4%
#1 Seed 8.0% 9.1% 2.4%
Top 2 Seed 16.0% 18.1% 5.8%
Top 4 Seed 30.9% 34.2% 13.9%
Top 6 Seed 43.1% 47.2% 22.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.8% 81.0% 61.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.6% 61.5% 36.2%
Average Seed 6.1 5.8 7.7
.500 or above 98.8% 99.4% 95.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.4% 97.7%
Conference Champion 62.8% 65.3% 49.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.6% 3.5% 4.2%
First Round76.3% 79.5% 59.7%
Second Round56.4% 60.1% 37.7%
Sweet Sixteen33.5% 36.3% 19.1%
Elite Eight18.8% 20.5% 10.1%
Final Four10.2% 11.3% 5.0%
Championship Game5.5% 6.2% 2.2%
National Champion2.9% 3.3% 1.0%

Next Game: Yale (Home) - 83.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 13 - 4
Quad 23 - 16 - 5
Quad 37 - 113 - 5
Quad 48 - 021 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 68   Yale W 80-70 84%    
  Nov 20, 2023 2   Purdue L 73-76 39%    
  Nov 28, 2023 254   Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-58 98%    
  Dec 02, 2023 18   USC W 79-77 56%    
  Dec 05, 2023 346   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94-64 99.6%   
  Dec 09, 2023 74   @ Washington W 81-76 67%    
  Dec 11, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 93-57 99.9%   
  Dec 15, 2023 6   Connecticut L 77-78 46%    
  Dec 20, 2023 245   Jackson St. W 89-66 98%    
  Dec 29, 2023 31   San Diego St. W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 04, 2024 191   Pepperdine W 94-75 95%    
  Jan 06, 2024 227   San Diego W 92-70 97%    
  Jan 11, 2024 144   @ Santa Clara W 87-76 81%    
  Jan 18, 2024 191   @ Pepperdine W 91-78 87%    
  Jan 20, 2024 227   @ San Diego W 89-73 91%    
  Jan 25, 2024 92   San Francisco W 86-73 86%    
  Jan 27, 2024 188   @ Pacific W 88-75 86%    
  Jan 30, 2024 116   Loyola Marymount W 86-71 89%    
  Feb 03, 2024 26   St. Mary's W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 07, 2024 174   Portland W 92-74 93%    
  Feb 10, 2024 13   @ Kentucky L 75-78 42%    
  Feb 15, 2024 116   @ Loyola Marymount W 83-74 77%    
  Feb 17, 2024 188   Pacific W 91-72 94%    
  Feb 22, 2024 174   @ Portland W 89-77 85%    
  Feb 24, 2024 144   Santa Clara W 90-73 92%    
  Feb 29, 2024 92   @ San Francisco W 83-76 72%    
  Mar 02, 2024 26   @ St. Mary's L 69-70 49%    
Projected Record 21 - 6 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.7 8.5 17.0 20.7 13.5 62.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.9 7.8 8.2 4.1 25.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.9 1.4 0.2 7.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.3 7.5 11.9 16.8 21.1 20.7 13.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 13.5    13.5
15-1 100.0% 20.7    18.8 1.9
14-2 80.7% 17.0    12.2 4.7 0.1
13-3 50.3% 8.5    4.7 3.4 0.4 0.0
12-4 22.4% 2.7    0.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
11-5 5.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 62.8% 62.8 50.1 11.5 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 13.5% 99.5% 74.0% 25.5% 2.3 5.4 3.8 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.1%
15-1 20.7% 97.6% 63.5% 34.1% 4.1 2.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 2.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.5 93.4%
14-2 21.1% 91.3% 52.9% 38.4% 6.5 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 1.8 81.5%
13-3 16.8% 77.7% 42.5% 35.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.8 61.2%
12-4 11.9% 59.5% 33.4% 26.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.8 39.2%
11-5 7.5% 42.0% 27.0% 15.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.3 20.6%
10-6 4.3% 24.5% 19.7% 4.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 5.9%
9-7 2.2% 17.5% 16.1% 1.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.7%
8-8 1.2% 9.3% 9.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
7-9 0.5% 7.0% 7.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-10 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
5-11 0.1% 0.1
4-12 0.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 77.8% 48.8% 29.0% 6.1 8.0 8.0 7.0 7.8 6.5 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.6 7.4 7.6 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 22.2 56.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 1.3 69.5 27.3 3.0 0.3