Preseason Rankings
West Coast
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 Gonzaga 77.8%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 6 13 - 3 +15.4      +10.9 1 +4.5 59 74.2 41 0.0 1 0.0 1
26 St. Mary's 60.9%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 12 - 4 +12.5      +4.5 54 +8.0 14 58.3 358 0.0 1 0.0 1
92 San Francisco 12.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 7 +5.3      +3.0 90 +2.3 105 70.8 114 0.0 1 0.0 1
116 Loyola Marymount 7.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 8 +3.2      +3.0 88 +0.2 164 67.8 182 0.0 1 0.0 1
144 Santa Clara 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 9 +1.5      +1.9 117 -0.4 187 73.7 43 0.0 1 0.0 1
174 Portland 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 6 - 10 -0.1      +3.1 86 -3.2 271 72.0 76 0.0 1 0.0 1
188 Pacific 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 6 - 10 -0.8      +1.0 142 -1.8 229 72.7 61 0.0 1 0.0 1
191 Pepperdine 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 6 - 10 -1.0      +0.9 144 -1.9 233 78.6 12 0.0 1 0.0 1
227 San Diego 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 5 - 11 -3.4      +0.4 162 -3.7 289 70.7 115 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Gonzaga 1.6 62.8 25.2 7.6 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 2.0 38.9 37.1 13.2 6.0 2.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
San Francisco 4.0 6.8 15.3 25.1 18.6 13.1 9.1 6.2 3.8 1.9
Loyola Marymount 4.7 3.4 9.7 18.2 18.6 16.4 12.8 9.7 7.1 4.0
Santa Clara 5.3 1.8 6.3 13.6 16.7 17.0 14.9 12.8 10.2 6.7
Portland 6.0 0.9 3.7 8.4 12.3 14.6 15.4 16.1 15.7 12.7
Pacific 6.1 0.8 2.9 8.0 11.5 14.1 15.7 16.9 16.4 13.7
Pepperdine 6.1 0.8 3.2 8.3 12.1 14.7 15.9 16.1 15.5 13.5
San Diego 7.0 0.2 1.2 3.6 6.8 10.4 12.7 16.5 21.2 27.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 13 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.3 7.5 11.9 16.8 21.1 20.7 13.5
St. Mary's 12 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.0 5.3 8.2 11.7 15.8 18.0 17.8 12.0 5.1
San Francisco 9 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.1 5.3 8.1 10.3 12.6 13.6 13.5 11.5 9.3 5.8 2.7 1.0 0.2
Loyola Marymount 8 - 8 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 5.9 8.4 11.2 12.9 13.8 12.4 10.6 8.3 5.5 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.1
Santa Clara 7 - 9 0.2 1.3 3.1 5.9 8.5 11.1 13.0 13.6 12.7 11.3 8.2 5.5 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Portland 6 - 10 0.8 2.9 6.2 9.5 12.0 13.4 13.6 12.4 10.4 7.6 5.3 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pacific 6 - 10 0.9 3.3 6.7 9.8 12.8 14.2 13.4 12.2 10.0 7.0 4.9 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 6 - 10 0.9 3.0 6.3 9.8 12.0 13.6 13.8 12.5 10.4 7.5 5.0 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
San Diego 5 - 11 3.0 7.7 11.8 14.6 15.2 13.5 11.8 8.8 6.2 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 62.8% 50.1 11.5 1.1 0.1
St. Mary's 38.9% 27.5 10.4 1.0 0.1
San Francisco 6.8% 3.7 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 3.4% 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Santa Clara 1.8% 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Portland 0.9% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Pacific 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 77.8% 48.8% 29.0% 7   8.0 8.0 7.0 7.8 6.5 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.6 7.4 7.6 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 22.2 56.6%
St. Mary's 60.9% 30.9% 30.0% 11   3.3 4.1 4.5 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 5.3 7.6 9.0 2.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 39.1 43.4%
San Francisco 12.7% 7.3% 5.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.7 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 87.3 5.8%
Loyola Marymount 7.0% 4.6% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 93.0 2.4%
Santa Clara 4.2% 2.8% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 95.8 1.4%
Portland 2.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 97.5 0.6%
Pacific 1.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 98.1 0.3%
Pepperdine 1.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 98.3 0.3%
San Diego 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.4 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 77.8% 3.6% 76.3% 56.4% 33.5% 18.8% 10.2% 5.5% 2.9%
St. Mary's 60.9% 5.6% 58.4% 38.1% 19.4% 9.6% 4.5% 2.1% 0.9%
San Francisco 12.7% 2.2% 11.7% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 7.0% 1.3% 6.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 4.2% 1.0% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 2.5% 0.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 1.9% 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 1.7% 0.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.7 40.3 50.5 8.8 0.4 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.6 0.1 44.7 48.1 6.8 0.3
2nd Round 78.9% 1.0 21.1 55.7 22.1 1.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 49.3% 0.6 50.7 43.2 6.0 0.1
Elite Eight 27.7% 0.3 72.3 26.3 1.4 0.0
Final Four 14.6% 0.1 85.4 14.3 0.3
Final Game 7.6% 0.1 92.4 7.6 0.1
Champion 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.9