Preseason Rankings
Portland
West Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#174
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.0#76
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#86
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#271
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.5% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.5 12.2 13.5
.500 or above 32.0% 43.5% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 29.1% 35.6% 21.4%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 20.2% 15.3% 25.8%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round2.3% 3.1% 1.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 34 - 66 - 13
Quad 46 - 212 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 141   Long Beach St. W 85-84 54%    
  Nov 12, 2023 202   UC Riverside W 77-72 67%    
  Nov 15, 2023 262   Tennessee St. W 85-77 78%    
  Nov 18, 2023 79   @ Nevada L 69-79 19%    
  Nov 28, 2023 211   @ Portland St. L 82-83 47%    
  Dec 01, 2023 163   Wyoming W 75-73 58%    
  Dec 03, 2023 166   Air Force W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 07, 2023 201   @ North Dakota St. L 77-78 45%    
  Dec 09, 2023 267   @ North Dakota W 79-76 59%    
  Dec 16, 2023 93   Grand Canyon L 71-76 33%    
  Dec 21, 2023 142   @ Hawaii L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 06, 2024 188   Pacific W 82-78 62%    
  Jan 11, 2024 26   @ St. Mary's L 60-76 10%    
  Jan 13, 2024 92   @ San Francisco L 74-82 24%    
  Jan 18, 2024 227   San Diego W 83-77 70%    
  Jan 20, 2024 144   @ Santa Clara L 78-83 35%    
  Jan 25, 2024 116   @ Loyola Marymount L 74-80 30%    
  Jan 27, 2024 92   San Francisco L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 01, 2024 188   @ Pacific L 79-81 43%    
  Feb 03, 2024 191   @ Pepperdine L 82-84 43%    
  Feb 07, 2024 10   @ Gonzaga L 74-92 7%    
  Feb 10, 2024 26   St. Mary's L 63-73 21%    
  Feb 15, 2024 227   @ San Diego W 80-79 51%    
  Feb 17, 2024 191   @ Pepperdine L 82-84 43%    
  Feb 22, 2024 10   Gonzaga L 77-89 15%    
  Feb 29, 2024 144   Santa Clara W 81-80 54%    
  Mar 02, 2024 116   Loyola Marymount L 77-78 49%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.9 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.3 3.0 6.3 4.1 0.9 0.0 14.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.0 3.8 0.6 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.6 7.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 16.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.3 6.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 15.7 8th
9th 0.8 2.8 4.6 3.4 1.0 0.1 12.7 9th
Total 0.8 2.9 6.2 9.5 12.0 13.4 13.6 12.4 10.4 7.6 5.3 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 79.5% 0.2    0.2 0.1
13-3 42.3% 0.3    0.2 0.2 0.0
12-4 11.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 100.0% 75.9% 24.1% 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 0.1% 77.7% 34.0% 43.7% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.2%
14-2 0.3% 59.6% 16.1% 43.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 51.8%
13-3 0.8% 33.6% 10.6% 23.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 25.8%
12-4 1.6% 21.2% 11.9% 9.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 10.5%
11-5 3.1% 9.6% 7.8% 1.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8 2.0%
10-6 5.3% 5.6% 5.2% 0.4% 12.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.4%
9-7 7.6% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.0%
8-8 10.4% 2.5% 2.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.2
7-9 12.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.2
6-10 13.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 13.4
5-11 13.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.3
4-12 12.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.0
3-13 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.5
2-14 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
1-15 2.9% 2.9
0-16 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 2.5% 2.0% 0.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 97.5 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%