Preseason Rankings
Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#93
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.5#299
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#113
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.0% 2.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.5% 29.3% 15.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.0% 3.2% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 13.0
.500 or above 87.4% 88.7% 68.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 90.1% 76.8%
Conference Champion 35.7% 36.6% 20.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.8% 3.0%
First Four1.5% 1.5% 0.7%
First Round27.7% 28.6% 15.0%
Second Round8.0% 8.4% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 2.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 94.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 37 - 49 - 8
Quad 411 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 83-67 94%    
  Nov 12, 2023 231   Northern Arizona W 76-64 86%    
  Nov 17, 2023 92   San Francisco L 70-71 50%    
  Nov 25, 2023 201   North Dakota St. W 75-65 81%    
  Nov 29, 2023 263   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-71 76%    
  Dec 02, 2023 200   Texas Arlington W 72-62 81%    
  Dec 05, 2023 31   San Diego St. L 63-67 37%    
  Dec 09, 2023 84   @ Liberty L 63-67 36%    
  Dec 16, 2023 174   Portland W 76-71 67%    
  Dec 20, 2023 117   Sam Houston St. W 67-62 68%    
  Dec 30, 2023 120   Louisiana Tech W 70-65 68%    
  Jan 04, 2024 226   @ Southern Utah W 78-72 68%    
  Jan 06, 2024 210   @ Utah Tech W 55-51 64%    
  Jan 11, 2024 168   Abilene Christian W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 13, 2024 214   Tarleton St. W 73-62 82%    
  Jan 18, 2024 164   Utah Valley W 75-67 74%    
  Jan 20, 2024 126   @ Seattle L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 25, 2024 115   @ Stephen F. Austin L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 27, 2024 200   @ Texas Arlington W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 01, 2024 126   Seattle W 73-67 68%    
  Feb 03, 2024 164   @ Utah Valley W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 10, 2024 226   Southern Utah W 81-69 83%    
  Feb 15, 2024 210   Utah Tech W 58-48 80%    
  Feb 17, 2024 186   California Baptist W 70-61 77%    
  Feb 22, 2024 214   @ Tarleton St. W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 24, 2024 168   @ Abilene Christian W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 29, 2024 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-68 87%    
  Mar 02, 2024 115   Stephen F. Austin W 73-68 66%    
  Mar 08, 2024 186   @ California Baptist W 67-64 60%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.8 7.7 8.2 6.8 4.1 1.5 35.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.9 5.7 5.8 3.4 1.2 0.2 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.8 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.7 3.9 5.7 7.3 9.0 10.5 11.8 11.8 11.3 9.4 7.0 4.1 1.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
19-1 100.0% 4.1    4.0 0.1
18-2 97.3% 6.8    6.4 0.5
17-3 87.7% 8.2    6.7 1.5 0.0
16-4 68.0% 7.7    5.1 2.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 40.6% 4.8    2.4 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-6 17.7% 2.1    0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 35.7% 35.7 26.7 7.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.5% 92.8% 74.8% 18.1% 5.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 71.6%
19-1 4.1% 82.4% 65.7% 16.7% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.7 48.6%
18-2 7.0% 64.1% 53.8% 10.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.5 22.4%
17-3 9.4% 50.4% 46.0% 4.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.7 8.2%
16-4 11.3% 36.7% 35.5% 1.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.2 1.8%
15-5 11.8% 29.3% 29.2% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 8.3 0.2%
14-6 11.8% 21.4% 21.4% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.2 0.1%
13-7 10.5% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.7 0.0%
12-8 9.0% 12.9% 12.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 7.9
11-9 7.3% 10.2% 10.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 6.5
10-10 5.7% 6.3% 6.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.4
9-11 3.9% 5.7% 5.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.7
8-12 2.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.6
7-13 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
6-14 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 28.5% 26.2% 2.2% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.5 5.6 7.9 5.3 2.8 1.2 0.6 71.5 3.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 99.7% 3.2 13.6 21.4 23.1 23.7 9.4 8.2 0.1 0.1