Preseason Rankings
Western Athletic
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
93 Grand Canyon 28.5%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 14 - 6 +5.2      +3.4 79 +1.8 113 63.5 299 0.0 1 0.0 1
115 Stephen F. Austin 18.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 13 - 7 +3.2      +1.7 127 +1.5 124 71.9 78 0.0 1 0.0 1
126 Seattle 15.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 8 +2.4      0.0 171 +2.5 100 71.6 89 0.0 1 0.0 1
164 Utah Valley 9.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 11 - 9 +0.4      -0.9 215 +1.3 131 73.5 44 0.0 1 0.0 1
168 Abilene Christian 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 10 +0.2      +0.4 163 -0.2 180 71.6 88 0.0 1 0.0 1
186 California Baptist 6.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 10 -0.8      -1.4 229 +0.7 151 62.2 324 0.0 1 0.0 1
200 Texas Arlington 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 11 -1.5      -1.4 227 -0.1 174 65.3 259 0.0 1 0.0 1
210 Utah Tech 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 11 -2.2      -19.5 362 +17.3 1 70.8 112 0.0 1 0.0 1
214 Tarleton St. 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -2.5      -2.4 256 0.0 173 66.3 221 0.0 1 0.0 1
226 Southern Utah 3.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 12 -3.4      +0.1 169 -3.5 279 77.4 19 0.0 1 0.0 1
263 UT Rio Grande Valley 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 14 -5.6      -2.0 245 -3.7 285 79.9 5 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Grand Canyon 3.0 35.7 19.9 13.4 9.7 7.0 5.0 3.5 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.5
Stephen F. Austin 3.8 22.6 17.8 13.8 11.4 9.8 7.4 5.6 4.5 3.3 2.3 1.3
Seattle 4.2 18.2 15.8 13.8 12.1 10.1 8.5 7.0 5.4 4.3 2.9 1.7
Utah Valley 5.2 10.3 11.6 11.7 11.4 10.8 9.9 9.5 8.2 6.8 5.6 4.1
Abilene Christian 5.3 9.4 11.0 11.6 11.3 10.9 10.1 9.5 8.7 7.3 5.9 4.3
California Baptist 5.9 7.0 8.8 9.6 10.2 10.6 10.6 10.3 9.9 9.2 8.0 5.7
Texas Arlington 6.2 5.6 7.3 8.6 9.6 10.3 10.6 10.8 10.5 10.2 9.5 7.0
Utah Tech 6.6 4.4 6.1 7.4 8.5 9.4 10.0 11.0 11.4 11.7 11.0 9.1
Tarleton St. 6.7 4.1 5.6 7.1 8.4 9.0 10.1 11.1 11.8 11.4 11.3 10.0
Southern Utah 7.2 2.7 4.5 5.6 7.1 8.4 9.4 11.0 11.9 12.4 14.0 13.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 8.3 1.1 2.0 2.9 4.1 5.6 7.2 9.0 11.3 14.3 17.6 24.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Grand Canyon 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.7 3.9 5.7 7.3 9.0 10.5 11.8 11.8 11.3 9.4 7.0 4.1 1.5
Stephen F. Austin 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.5 4.9 6.0 8.0 9.8 10.3 10.9 10.5 9.5 8.4 6.2 4.1 1.9 0.6
Seattle 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.2 6.0 7.5 8.9 9.9 10.6 10.4 10.4 8.3 6.9 5.0 3.0 1.4 0.4
Utah Valley 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.1 6.8 8.3 9.1 10.4 10.1 9.7 9.2 7.8 5.8 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.2
Abilene Christian 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.6 4.0 5.6 7.3 8.5 9.4 10.2 10.0 10.2 8.5 7.3 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1
California Baptist 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.7 5.5 7.0 8.4 9.7 10.2 10.1 9.7 8.7 7.4 5.8 4.3 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
Texas Arlington 9 - 11 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.3 6.3 8.0 9.3 9.9 10.4 10.1 9.4 7.9 6.6 5.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Utah Tech 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.6 5.6 7.2 8.9 10.1 10.7 10.1 9.7 8.5 6.9 5.5 4.1 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Tarleton St. 9 - 11 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.0 5.8 7.5 9.1 10.0 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.4 6.9 5.3 3.9 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 8 - 12 0.4 1.5 3.2 5.0 7.1 8.8 10.0 10.8 10.6 10.2 8.4 7.3 5.8 4.2 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 6 - 14 1.2 3.5 6.4 8.9 10.2 11.4 11.6 10.6 9.5 8.1 6.1 4.4 3.2 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grand Canyon 35.7% 26.7 7.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 22.6% 15.7 5.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seattle 18.2% 12.5 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah Valley 10.3% 6.5 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 9.4% 5.9 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
California Baptist 7.0% 4.5 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Arlington 5.6% 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 4.4% 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 4.1% 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 2.7% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 1.1% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grand Canyon 28.5% 26.2% 2.2% 13   0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.5 5.6 7.9 5.3 2.8 1.2 0.6 71.5 3.0%
Stephen F. Austin 18.3% 17.2% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.8 5.0 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.8 81.7 1.3%
Seattle 15.2% 14.4% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.2 3.9 3.5 2.4 1.2 0.8 84.8 0.9%
Utah Valley 9.4% 9.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.4 90.6 0.5%
Abilene Christian 8.6% 8.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.0 1.1 91.4 0.3%
California Baptist 6.7% 6.5% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.8 93.3 0.2%
Texas Arlington 5.5% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.2 94.5 0.2%
Utah Tech 4.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 95.7 0.0%
Tarleton St. 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 95.7 0.1%
Southern Utah 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 97.0 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 98.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 28.5% 1.5% 27.7% 8.0% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 18.3% 1.1% 17.8% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 15.2% 0.9% 14.9% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 9.4% 1.3% 8.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 8.6% 1.0% 8.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 6.7% 0.6% 6.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 5.5% 1.1% 5.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 4.3% 0.6% 4.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 4.3% 0.9% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 3.0% 0.7% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 1.5% 0.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.7 5.2 0.1
1st Round 97.3% 1.0 2.7 93.6 3.7 0.0
2nd Round 21.1% 0.2 78.9 20.8 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 6.3% 0.1 93.7 6.2 0.0
Elite Eight 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6 0.0
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0