Preseason Rankings
Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#214
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.3#221
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#256
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#173
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 9.5% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.0 14.1
.500 or above 25.2% 52.9% 23.5%
.500 or above in Conference 39.4% 59.4% 38.2%
Conference Champion 4.1% 9.9% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 15.0% 6.9% 15.5%
First Four0.9% 1.2% 0.9%
First Round3.9% 8.9% 3.6%
Second Round0.5% 1.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 5.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 46 - 311 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 34   @ Virginia L 52-69 6%    
  Nov 09, 2023 196   @ Florida International L 70-74 35%    
  Nov 14, 2023 100   @ Bradley L 60-70 18%    
  Nov 20, 2023 236   Austin Peay W 67-66 56%    
  Nov 29, 2023 115   @ Stephen F. Austin L 66-75 22%    
  Dec 02, 2023 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 18, 2023 221   Jacksonville St. W 68-64 62%    
  Dec 21, 2023 7   @ Tennessee L 53-75 3%    
  Dec 29, 2023 116   @ Loyola Marymount L 65-74 23%    
  Jan 04, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 11, 2024 186   @ California Baptist L 62-67 34%    
  Jan 13, 2024 93   @ Grand Canyon L 62-73 18%    
  Jan 18, 2024 168   Abilene Christian W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 20, 2024 263   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 25, 2024 226   Southern Utah W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 27, 2024 210   Utah Tech W 54-51 59%    
  Feb 01, 2024 168   @ Abilene Christian L 68-74 32%    
  Feb 03, 2024 115   Stephen F. Austin L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 08, 2024 164   @ Utah Valley L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 10, 2024 126   @ Seattle L 65-73 26%    
  Feb 15, 2024 200   @ Texas Arlington L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 22, 2024 93   Grand Canyon L 65-70 35%    
  Feb 24, 2024 186   California Baptist W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 29, 2024 210   @ Utah Tech L 51-54 40%    
  Mar 02, 2024 226   @ Southern Utah L 74-76 43%    
  Mar 07, 2024 164   Utah Valley W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 09, 2024 126   Seattle L 68-70 44%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.4 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.6 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.4 4.0 1.2 0.1 11.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.3 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 3.8 2.6 0.7 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.8 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 10.0 11th
Total 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.0 5.8 7.5 9.1 10.0 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.4 6.9 5.3 3.9 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 98.8% 0.4    0.3 0.0
17-3 87.4% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 66.0% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 38.1% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 16.2% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 76.5% 50.0% 26.5% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.9%
19-1 0.1% 64.7% 53.5% 11.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.1%
18-2 0.4% 42.5% 36.3% 6.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.7%
17-3 0.9% 35.0% 32.6% 2.4% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 3.5%
16-4 1.6% 25.2% 25.0% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2 0.3%
15-5 2.6% 15.7% 15.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2
14-6 3.9% 14.8% 14.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.3
13-7 5.3% 9.4% 9.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.8
12-8 6.9% 7.4% 7.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.4
11-9 8.4% 5.6% 5.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.9
10-10 9.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.1
9-11 10.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.9
8-12 10.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 10.5
7-13 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.9
6-14 9.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.0
5-15 7.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.5
4-16 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.8
3-17 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
2-18 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.1
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
Total 100% 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 95.7 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%