Preseason Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#34
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace57.2#359
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#81
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.4% 2.5% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 5.7% 6.0% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 14.1% 14.8% 3.5%
Top 6 Seed 24.1% 25.1% 8.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.1% 54.7% 27.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.7% 50.3% 23.5%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 8.1
.500 or above 89.8% 91.1% 68.8%
.500 or above in Conference 79.9% 81.0% 60.7%
Conference Champion 12.2% 12.6% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.1% 3.6%
First Four5.1% 5.1% 4.2%
First Round50.6% 52.2% 24.7%
Second Round32.8% 34.0% 14.2%
Sweet Sixteen15.5% 16.1% 5.6%
Elite Eight7.2% 7.5% 2.3%
Final Four3.3% 3.5% 0.8%
Championship Game1.5% 1.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.1%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 94.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 6
Quad 25 - 38 - 9
Quad 35 - 114 - 10
Quad 46 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 214   Tarleton St. W 69-52 94%    
  Nov 10, 2023 36   Florida W 64-63 50%    
  Nov 14, 2023 352   N.C. A&T W 78-51 99%    
  Nov 16, 2023 222   Texas Southern W 72-55 94%    
  Nov 20, 2023 28   Wisconsin L 57-58 47%    
  Nov 29, 2023 22   Texas A&M W 62-61 55%    
  Dec 02, 2023 75   Syracuse W 67-60 74%    
  Dec 05, 2023 306   NC Central W 72-50 97%    
  Dec 16, 2023 228   Northeastern W 70-52 94%    
  Dec 19, 2023 27   @ Memphis L 65-69 36%    
  Dec 27, 2023 333   Morgan St. W 77-52 98%    
  Dec 30, 2023 133   @ Notre Dame W 64-58 70%    
  Jan 03, 2024 124   Louisville W 69-57 84%    
  Jan 06, 2024 61   @ North Carolina St. L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 13, 2024 64   @ Wake Forest W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 17, 2024 57   Virginia Tech W 65-60 67%    
  Jan 20, 2024 98   @ Georgia Tech W 64-60 62%    
  Jan 24, 2024 61   North Carolina St. W 68-62 68%    
  Jan 27, 2024 124   @ Louisville W 66-60 69%    
  Jan 31, 2024 133   Notre Dame W 67-55 85%    
  Feb 03, 2024 45   @ Clemson L 63-65 45%    
  Feb 05, 2024 30   Miami (FL) W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 10, 2024 85   @ Florida St. W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 13, 2024 69   Pittsburgh W 66-59 71%    
  Feb 17, 2024 64   Wake Forest W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 19, 2024 57   @ Virginia Tech L 62-63 48%    
  Feb 24, 2024 16   North Carolina W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 28, 2024 103   @ Boston College W 63-59 63%    
  Mar 02, 2024 3   @ Duke L 56-65 23%    
  Mar 09, 2024 98   Georgia Tech W 67-57 78%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.6 3.4 2.9 1.5 0.4 12.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.3 4.3 4.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.9 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.5 2.9 0.7 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 0.9 0.1 4.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.2 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.5 8.5 9.7 10.7 11.1 10.8 9.7 8.1 5.9 3.5 1.6 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 97.7% 1.5    1.4 0.2
18-2 82.8% 2.9    2.2 0.7 0.0
17-3 58.7% 3.4    2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
16-4 32.0% 2.6    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 11.6% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 7.2 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.6% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.5% 99.9% 22.2% 77.7% 2.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-3 5.9% 99.5% 18.9% 80.6% 3.6 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
16-4 8.1% 97.8% 15.0% 82.8% 5.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.4%
15-5 9.7% 93.8% 13.4% 80.4% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 92.9%
14-6 10.8% 82.0% 9.5% 72.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.0 80.1%
13-7 11.1% 66.2% 6.3% 59.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.1 0.1 3.7 63.9%
12-8 10.7% 44.7% 6.4% 38.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.9 41.0%
11-9 9.7% 25.2% 4.8% 20.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.2 21.5%
10-10 8.5% 10.9% 3.8% 7.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.6 7.4%
9-11 6.5% 4.5% 3.1% 1.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 1.4%
8-12 4.9% 2.6% 2.5% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.1%
7-13 3.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
6-14 2.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
5-15 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-17 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 53.1% 8.7% 44.5% 6.7 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.7 4.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 46.9 48.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 79.8 20.2