Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Duke 91.1%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 6 16 - 4 +17.5      +9.1 8 +8.4 8 63.6 293 0.0 1 0.0 1
16 North Carolina 75.2%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +13.9      +8.2 15 +5.7 37 71.4 93 0.0 1 0.0 1
30 Miami (FL) 59.0%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 8 +12.1      +8.3 13 +3.7 71 71.0 105 0.0 1 0.0 1
34 Virginia 53.1%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +11.4      +3.3 81 +8.1 12 57.2 359 0.0 1 0.0 1
45 Clemson 48.1%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 9 +10.1      +5.4 42 +4.7 52 69.7 139 0.0 1 0.0 1
57 Virginia Tech 36.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 9 +9.1      +5.6 39 +3.6 75 66.8 211 0.0 1 0.0 1
61 North Carolina St. 34.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +8.9      +5.7 38 +3.2 86 72.0 75 0.0 1 0.0 1
64 Wake Forest 30.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 10 +8.3      +6.0 34 +2.3 104 72.7 60 0.0 1 0.0 1
69 Pittsburgh 27.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +7.7      +4.3 59 +3.4 78 68.2 171 0.0 1 0.0 1
75 Syracuse 24.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 11 +7.0      +5.0 50 +2.0 111 67.8 181 0.0 1 0.0 1
85 Florida St. 19.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 12 +6.1      +4.4 57 +1.7 117 71.2 100 0.0 1 0.0 1
98 Georgia Tech 12.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 12 +4.7      +2.3 110 +2.4 101 66.6 215 0.0 1 0.0 1
103 Boston College 9.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 12 +4.1      +1.5 131 +2.6 97 66.5 216 0.0 1 0.0 1
124 Louisville 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 14 +2.5      +1.9 119 +0.6 153 66.8 212 0.0 1 0.0 1
133 Notre Dame 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 14 +2.2      +1.9 121 +0.3 162 63.3 302 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 2.4 47.8 19.9 11.5 7.2 4.5 3.1 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 4.5 19.0 16.0 13.2 11.2 9.3 7.2 6.2 4.9 4.0 3.1 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3
Miami (FL) 5.1 13.2 14.3 12.9 11.4 9.8 8.2 7.1 6.0 4.9 3.9 3.0 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.5
Virginia 5.1 12.2 14.4 13.3 11.4 9.7 8.4 6.9 5.9 4.8 3.9 3.2 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.6
Clemson 6.4 6.7 9.4 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.2 8.4 7.6 6.8 5.8 5.1 4.1 3.4 2.2 1.3
Virginia Tech 6.8 5.8 7.9 9.0 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.1 7.5 6.7 5.7 4.5 3.8 3.0 1.7
North Carolina St. 7.2 5.2 6.8 8.0 8.5 8.7 8.4 8.6 8.1 7.7 7.0 6.8 5.7 4.8 3.4 2.5
Wake Forest 7.8 4.0 5.7 6.3 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.8 8.2 7.8 7.9 7.3 6.8 5.8 4.6 3.1
Pittsburgh 8.0 3.1 4.9 6.2 7.0 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.2 7.5 7.0 6.1 5.1 3.3
Syracuse 8.3 2.4 4.2 5.5 6.8 7.5 8.1 8.7 8.2 8.4 8.4 7.8 7.8 6.6 5.6 3.9
Florida St. 9.2 1.7 3.2 4.2 5.0 5.9 6.4 7.2 7.5 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.1 8.6 8.3 6.8
Georgia Tech 10.1 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.4 4.3 5.3 6.2 7.2 8.2 9.0 9.8 10.6 10.9 10.8 9.2
Boston College 9.9 0.9 1.9 2.8 3.9 4.7 5.7 6.5 7.3 8.2 8.9 9.2 10.0 10.1 10.5 9.3
Louisville 11.3 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.2 4.5 5.2 6.7 7.7 9.9 11.5 13.4 15.2 16.3
Notre Dame 11.6 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.4 2.9 3.5 4.9 6.0 7.5 9.2 10.7 13.1 15.9 20.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.3 5.1 7.6 9.7 12.3 13.8 15.1 13.5 10.0 4.6
North Carolina 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.3 7.1 8.5 10.1 11.2 11.5 10.8 9.9 7.8 5.0 2.5 0.7
Miami (FL) 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.3 5.0 6.6 8.1 10.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 9.9 8.1 5.8 3.5 1.8 0.4
Virginia 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.5 8.5 9.7 10.7 11.1 10.8 9.7 8.1 5.9 3.5 1.6 0.4
Clemson 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.4 5.8 7.3 9.1 10.0 10.9 10.9 9.9 8.8 6.7 4.8 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2
Virginia Tech 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.4 5.0 6.6 8.3 9.7 10.7 10.6 10.2 9.1 7.8 6.1 4.2 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.1
North Carolina St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.3 5.8 7.5 8.8 10.1 10.3 10.3 9.7 8.4 6.8 5.0 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Wake Forest 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.5 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.4 10.2 10.5 10.0 9.2 7.1 6.1 4.2 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
Pittsburgh 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 3.8 5.5 7.2 8.7 10.1 10.6 10.7 9.9 8.8 7.2 5.3 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Syracuse 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.4 6.1 8.4 8.8 10.2 10.8 10.6 9.7 8.6 6.4 4.7 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.3 6.1 8.0 9.5 10.3 10.5 10.2 9.1 7.9 6.7 4.8 3.7 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 8 - 12 0.4 1.7 3.6 5.5 8.3 10.0 11.2 11.2 11.1 9.7 8.3 6.5 4.9 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 8 - 12 0.4 1.6 3.2 5.5 7.8 9.7 10.5 10.7 10.8 9.7 8.7 7.0 5.2 3.7 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Louisville 6 - 14 1.0 3.3 6.7 8.7 11.3 12.2 12.4 11.5 9.7 7.5 5.8 4.2 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 6 - 14 1.7 4.5 7.6 10.0 11.6 12.2 11.6 10.6 9.1 6.8 5.1 3.6 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 47.8% 35.9 9.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 19.0% 12.4 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 13.2% 8.0 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Virginia 12.2% 7.2 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Clemson 6.7% 3.7 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 5.8% 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 5.2% 2.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 4.0% 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 3.1% 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 1.7% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 91.1% 26.1% 65.0% 1   21.4 16.5 11.7 9.3 7.7 5.8 5.3 4.4 3.6 3.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 87.9%
North Carolina 75.2% 14.5% 60.7% 4   7.8 8.9 8.5 8.3 7.3 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.4 5.1 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 24.8 71.0%
Miami (FL) 59.0% 10.2% 48.7% 9   3.3 4.3 4.9 5.4 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.5 4.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 41.0 54.3%
Virginia 53.1% 8.7% 44.5% 10   2.4 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.7 4.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 46.9 48.7%
Clemson 48.1% 7.4% 40.6% 11   1.6 2.6 3.4 3.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.7 4.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 51.9 43.9%
Virginia Tech 36.0% 5.7% 30.3% 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.4 4.0 4.7 5.5 4.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 64.0 32.1%
North Carolina St. 34.8% 5.2% 29.6% 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.6 5.4 4.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 65.2 31.2%
Wake Forest 30.8% 4.9% 26.0% 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.8 4.1 5.0 3.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 69.2 27.3%
Pittsburgh 27.0% 4.3% 22.7% 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.5 3.2 3.6 4.7 3.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 73.0 23.7%
Syracuse 24.2% 3.5% 20.7% 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.4 4.2 3.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 75.8 21.4%
Florida St. 19.5% 3.0% 16.5% 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.8 3.6 3.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 80.5 17.0%
Georgia Tech 12.4% 2.2% 10.3% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 87.6 10.5%
Boston College 9.6% 1.9% 7.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 90.4 7.9%
Louisville 5.2% 1.2% 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 94.8 4.1%
Notre Dame 5.1% 1.3% 3.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 94.9 3.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 91.1% 1.9% 90.2% 75.5% 50.1% 30.7% 17.8% 9.9% 5.6%
North Carolina 75.2% 4.2% 73.2% 53.7% 29.5% 15.3% 7.7% 3.8% 1.8%
Miami (FL) 59.0% 5.0% 56.6% 37.7% 18.6% 9.1% 4.2% 1.9% 0.9%
Virginia 53.1% 5.1% 50.6% 32.8% 15.5% 7.2% 3.3% 1.5% 0.7%
Clemson 48.1% 5.3% 45.3% 27.5% 12.2% 5.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%
Virginia Tech 36.0% 5.0% 33.5% 19.6% 8.0% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
North Carolina St. 34.8% 4.7% 32.3% 18.7% 7.8% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Wake Forest 30.8% 4.4% 28.6% 16.0% 6.2% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%
Pittsburgh 27.0% 4.3% 24.8% 13.5% 5.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Syracuse 24.2% 4.6% 21.7% 11.5% 4.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Florida St. 19.5% 3.8% 17.5% 8.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Georgia Tech 12.4% 2.9% 10.8% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Boston College 9.6% 2.4% 8.4% 3.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Louisville 5.2% 1.4% 4.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 5.1% 1.4% 4.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.3 0.0 0.8 6.0 19.3 30.1 26.9 12.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.0 0.1 1.5 8.9 23.5 31.4 22.9 9.3 2.0 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 99.5% 3.3 0.5 5.5 20.1 32.5 26.5 11.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 88.4% 1.6 11.6 34.9 35.1 15.0 3.0 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 62.4% 0.8 37.6 44.3 15.7 2.3 0.1 0.0
Final Four 36.6% 0.4 63.4 32.2 4.2 0.2
Final Game 19.6% 0.2 80.4 18.8 0.8
Champion 10.2% 0.1 89.8 10.2