Preseason Rankings
Wake Forest
Atlantic Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#64
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.7#60
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#104
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.5% 1.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.8% 4.9% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 9.6% 9.9% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.8% 31.5% 9.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.3% 27.9% 7.7%
Average Seed 7.8 7.8 8.9
.500 or above 68.1% 69.2% 32.5%
.500 or above in Conference 52.4% 53.2% 27.5%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.0% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 5.2% 15.5%
First Four4.4% 4.5% 1.6%
First Round28.6% 29.3% 8.8%
Second Round16.0% 16.4% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen6.2% 6.4% 1.2%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.7% 0.5%
Final Four1.0% 1.0% 0.3%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 96.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 7
Quad 24 - 47 - 11
Quad 34 - 111 - 12
Quad 46 - 017 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 309   Elon W 83-64 97%    
  Nov 10, 2023 73   @ Georgia L 75-77 43%    
  Nov 16, 2023 62   Utah L 72-73 49%    
  Nov 24, 2023 328   Charleston Southern W 85-64 97%    
  Nov 29, 2023 36   Florida W 77-76 50%    
  Dec 06, 2023 51   Rutgers W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 09, 2023 339   NJIT W 84-62 97%    
  Dec 18, 2023 355   Delaware St. W 86-61 98%    
  Dec 21, 2023 322   Presbyterian W 80-60 96%    
  Dec 30, 2023 57   Virginia Tech W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 02, 2024 103   @ Boston College W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 06, 2024 30   Miami (FL) L 78-79 48%    
  Jan 09, 2024 85   @ Florida St. L 78-79 47%    
  Jan 13, 2024 34   Virginia L 66-67 50%    
  Jan 16, 2024 61   @ North Carolina St. L 76-80 38%    
  Jan 20, 2024 124   Louisville W 79-70 77%    
  Jan 22, 2024 16   @ North Carolina L 74-83 24%    
  Jan 31, 2024 69   @ Pittsburgh L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 03, 2024 75   Syracuse W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 06, 2024 98   @ Georgia Tech W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 10, 2024 61   North Carolina St. W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 12, 2024 3   @ Duke L 67-79 16%    
  Feb 17, 2024 34   @ Virginia L 63-69 31%    
  Feb 20, 2024 69   Pittsburgh W 77-73 62%    
  Feb 24, 2024 3   Duke L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 27, 2024 133   @ Notre Dame W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 02, 2024 57   @ Virginia Tech L 73-77 37%    
  Mar 05, 2024 98   Georgia Tech W 78-71 71%    
  Mar 09, 2024 45   Clemson W 77-76 54%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 3.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.2 0.8 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.6 1.1 0.1 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.6 1.6 0.2 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.0 4.6 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.1 15th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.5 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.4 10.2 10.5 10.0 9.2 7.1 6.1 4.2 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 93.6% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 70.2% 1.1    0.7 0.3 0.1
16-4 37.1% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 16.2% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 2.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.5% 99.7% 19.3% 80.4% 3.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
16-4 2.8% 99.4% 15.7% 83.7% 4.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
15-5 4.2% 97.6% 11.1% 86.5% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.3%
14-6 6.1% 89.7% 9.9% 79.8% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 88.5%
13-7 7.1% 76.4% 7.2% 69.2% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.7 74.6%
12-8 9.2% 54.1% 7.1% 47.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.2 50.6%
11-9 10.0% 31.5% 5.1% 26.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.8 27.8%
10-10 10.5% 14.2% 4.1% 10.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 10.6%
9-11 10.2% 3.9% 2.3% 1.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.8 1.6%
8-12 9.4% 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.2 0.1%
7-13 8.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5
6-14 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.9
5-15 5.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.2
4-16 3.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
3-17 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-18 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 30.8% 4.9% 26.0% 7.8 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.8 4.1 5.0 3.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 69.2 27.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 77.9 22.1