Preseason Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#3
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.6#293
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.7% 5.7% 1.2%
#1 Seed 21.4% 21.6% 6.2%
Top 2 Seed 37.9% 38.1% 12.4%
Top 4 Seed 58.9% 59.2% 28.8%
Top 6 Seed 72.4% 72.7% 42.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.1% 91.3% 69.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.9% 88.2% 65.5%
Average Seed 4.0 3.9 5.6
.500 or above 98.8% 98.9% 90.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 97.4% 90.4%
Conference Champion 47.8% 47.9% 28.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four1.9% 1.9% 3.5%
First Round90.2% 90.4% 68.0%
Second Round75.5% 75.8% 42.0%
Sweet Sixteen50.1% 50.3% 24.2%
Elite Eight30.7% 30.9% 15.5%
Final Four17.8% 17.9% 7.0%
Championship Game9.9% 10.0% 3.6%
National Champion5.6% 5.6% 2.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 16 - 4
Quad 26 - 112 - 6
Quad 37 - 118 - 6
Quad 46 - 025 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 243   Dartmouth W 82-57 99%    
  Nov 10, 2023 11   Arizona W 78-73 68%    
  Nov 14, 2023 5   Michigan St. W 67-66 53%    
  Nov 17, 2023 331   Bucknell W 83-53 99.7%   
  Nov 21, 2023 199   La Salle W 80-58 97%    
  Nov 24, 2023 344   Southern Indiana W 88-56 99.8%   
  Nov 29, 2023 17   @ Arkansas W 71-70 52%    
  Dec 02, 2023 98   @ Georgia Tech W 73-63 81%    
  Dec 09, 2023 156   Charlotte W 71-51 96%    
  Dec 12, 2023 112   Hofstra W 78-61 93%    
  Dec 20, 2023 14   Baylor W 72-69 60%    
  Dec 30, 2023 224   Queens W 85-61 98%    
  Jan 02, 2024 75   Syracuse W 77-64 87%    
  Jan 06, 2024 133   @ Notre Dame W 73-61 85%    
  Jan 09, 2024 69   @ Pittsburgh W 73-66 71%    
  Jan 13, 2024 98   Georgia Tech W 76-60 91%    
  Jan 20, 2024 69   Pittsburgh W 76-63 85%    
  Jan 23, 2024 124   @ Louisville W 75-63 84%    
  Jan 27, 2024 45   Clemson W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 29, 2024 57   @ Virginia Tech W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 03, 2024 16   @ North Carolina W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 07, 2024 133   Notre Dame W 76-58 93%    
  Feb 10, 2024 103   Boston College W 76-60 91%    
  Feb 12, 2024 64   Wake Forest W 79-67 84%    
  Feb 17, 2024 85   @ Florida St. W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 21, 2024 30   @ Miami (FL) W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 24, 2024 64   @ Wake Forest W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 28, 2024 124   Louisville W 78-60 93%    
  Mar 02, 2024 34   Virginia W 65-56 77%    
  Mar 04, 2024 61   @ North Carolina St. W 75-69 68%    
  Mar 09, 2024 16   North Carolina W 75-68 70%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.4 11.4 12.5 10.0 4.6 47.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.5 5.8 6.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.2 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 7.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.3 5.1 7.6 9.7 12.3 13.8 15.1 13.5 10.0 4.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 4.6    4.6
19-1 99.4% 10.0    9.5 0.4
18-2 92.4% 12.5    10.5 2.0 0.1
17-3 75.7% 11.4    7.7 3.3 0.4 0.0
16-4 46.3% 6.4    3.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 0.0
15-5 19.5% 2.4    0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.8% 47.8 35.9 9.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 4.6% 100.0% 56.0% 44.0% 1.2 3.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 10.0% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 1.4 6.8 2.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 13.5% 100.0% 36.7% 63.3% 1.7 6.4 4.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 15.1% 99.9% 31.0% 68.9% 2.5 3.4 4.9 4.0 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 13.8% 99.6% 25.0% 74.7% 3.7 0.8 2.5 3.5 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
15-5 12.3% 98.6% 19.6% 79.0% 5.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.2%
14-6 9.7% 94.5% 16.8% 77.8% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 93.4%
13-7 7.6% 87.3% 13.6% 73.7% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.0 85.3%
12-8 5.1% 71.5% 10.6% 61.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.4 68.2%
11-9 3.3% 51.1% 9.0% 42.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 46.3%
10-10 2.3% 29.7% 7.5% 22.2% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 24.0%
9-11 1.3% 9.1% 4.4% 4.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.9%
8-12 0.7% 2.4% 1.9% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.6%
7-13 0.4% 3.6% 3.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-14 0.2% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.1% 4.8% 4.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 91.1% 26.1% 65.0% 4.0 21.4 16.5 11.7 9.3 7.7 5.8 5.3 4.4 3.6 3.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 87.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 1.1 87.8 12.2 0.0