Preseason Rankings
Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#124
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.8#212
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#119
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#153
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 5.7% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.1% 4.5% 1.0%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 10.3
.500 or above 30.5% 33.1% 11.0%
.500 or above in Conference 15.8% 16.9% 7.7%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 24.5% 22.6% 38.1%
First Four1.4% 1.5% 0.5%
First Round4.5% 4.9% 1.3%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Home) - 88.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 9
Quad 22 - 53 - 14
Quad 34 - 37 - 17
Quad 45 - 112 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 292   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 78-66 88%    
  Nov 10, 2023 197   Chattanooga W 76-69 74%    
  Nov 15, 2023 357   Coppin St. W 85-66 96%    
  Nov 19, 2023 15   Texas L 66-78 15%    
  Nov 26, 2023 167   New Mexico St. W 75-70 68%    
  Nov 29, 2023 215   Bellarmine W 70-62 76%    
  Dec 03, 2023 57   @ Virginia Tech L 66-76 21%    
  Dec 09, 2023 109   @ DePaul L 71-75 36%    
  Dec 13, 2023 198   Arkansas St. W 70-63 72%    
  Dec 17, 2023 191   Pepperdine W 81-74 71%    
  Dec 21, 2023 13   Kentucky L 66-75 21%    
  Jan 03, 2024 34   @ Virginia L 57-69 16%    
  Jan 06, 2024 69   Pittsburgh L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 10, 2024 30   @ Miami (FL) L 68-81 14%    
  Jan 13, 2024 61   North Carolina St. L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 17, 2024 16   @ North Carolina L 67-81 11%    
  Jan 20, 2024 64   @ Wake Forest L 70-79 23%    
  Jan 23, 2024 3   Duke L 63-75 16%    
  Jan 27, 2024 34   Virginia L 60-66 31%    
  Jan 30, 2024 45   @ Clemson L 66-77 19%    
  Feb 03, 2024 85   Florida St. L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 07, 2024 75   @ Syracuse L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 10, 2024 98   Georgia Tech W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 13, 2024 103   @ Boston College L 67-72 35%    
  Feb 17, 2024 69   @ Pittsburgh L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 21, 2024 133   Notre Dame W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 28, 2024 3   @ Duke L 60-78 7%    
  Mar 02, 2024 75   Syracuse L 72-73 45%    
  Mar 05, 2024 57   Virginia Tech L 69-73 39%    
  Mar 09, 2024 103   Boston College W 70-69 55%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 7.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 9.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 3.0 5.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 13.4 13th
14th 0.2 1.5 3.8 5.4 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 15.2 14th
15th 1.0 3.1 5.1 4.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 16.3 15th
Total 1.0 3.3 6.7 8.7 11.3 12.2 12.4 11.5 9.7 7.5 5.8 4.2 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1
18-2 78.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 85.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 37.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 20.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 14.8% 85.2% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 98.0% 15.2% 82.7% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
15-5 0.5% 93.0% 5.7% 87.4% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.6%
14-6 0.9% 82.7% 9.4% 73.3% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 80.9%
13-7 1.5% 60.9% 2.6% 58.3% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 59.9%
12-8 2.5% 36.2% 4.6% 31.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 33.1%
11-9 4.2% 17.7% 2.9% 14.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.5 15.3%
10-10 5.8% 7.4% 2.2% 5.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 5.3%
9-11 7.5% 2.6% 1.8% 0.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.8%
8-12 9.7% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.5 0.0%
7-13 11.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.4
6-14 12.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.3
5-15 12.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.1
4-16 11.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.3
3-17 8.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.7
2-18 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
1-19 3.3% 3.3
0-20 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 5.2% 1.2% 4.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 94.8 4.1%