Preseason Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.7#5
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.0#308
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.8% 5.1% 0.9%
#1 Seed 18.2% 19.0% 4.4%
Top 2 Seed 33.5% 34.7% 12.0%
Top 4 Seed 55.1% 56.7% 28.1%
Top 6 Seed 69.6% 71.2% 42.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.1% 89.1% 70.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.8% 87.0% 67.7%
Average Seed 4.1 4.0 5.7
.500 or above 96.6% 97.1% 86.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 90.4% 76.3%
Conference Champion 27.5% 28.3% 12.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 2.1%
First Four2.0% 1.9% 3.5%
First Round87.1% 88.2% 69.2%
Second Round71.7% 73.1% 47.9%
Sweet Sixteen46.0% 47.2% 26.2%
Elite Eight27.1% 27.9% 12.8%
Final Four15.2% 15.7% 5.4%
Championship Game8.4% 8.7% 2.9%
National Champion4.6% 4.8% 1.6%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 94.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 6
Quad 26 - 112 - 7
Quad 35 - 017 - 8
Quad 46 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 121   James Madison W 81-64 95%    
  Nov 09, 2023 344   Southern Indiana W 87-56 99.8%   
  Nov 14, 2023 3   Duke L 66-67 47%    
  Nov 17, 2023 88   Butler W 72-58 90%    
  Nov 19, 2023 281   Alcorn St. W 81-55 99%    
  Nov 23, 2023 11   Arizona W 77-73 65%    
  Nov 28, 2023 229   Georgia Southern W 78-55 98%    
  Dec 05, 2023 28   Wisconsin W 66-59 74%    
  Dec 10, 2023 67   @ Nebraska W 71-65 68%    
  Dec 16, 2023 14   Baylor W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 18, 2023 256   Oakland W 83-58 98%    
  Dec 21, 2023 255   Stony Brook W 77-52 98%    
  Dec 30, 2023 122   Indiana St. W 81-64 93%    
  Jan 04, 2024 76   Penn St. W 72-59 86%    
  Jan 07, 2024 47   @ Northwestern W 67-63 62%    
  Jan 11, 2024 21   @ Illinois W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 14, 2024 51   Rutgers W 70-60 80%    
  Jan 18, 2024 113   Minnesota W 74-58 91%    
  Jan 21, 2024 29   @ Maryland W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 26, 2024 28   @ Wisconsin W 63-62 54%    
  Jan 30, 2024 48   Michigan W 74-64 80%    
  Feb 03, 2024 29   Maryland W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 06, 2024 113   @ Minnesota W 71-61 80%    
  Feb 10, 2024 21   Illinois W 74-67 70%    
  Feb 14, 2024 76   @ Penn St. W 69-62 71%    
  Feb 17, 2024 48   @ Michigan W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 19, 2024 42   Iowa W 79-70 77%    
  Feb 25, 2024 38   Ohio St. W 73-64 76%    
  Mar 02, 2024 2   @ Purdue L 63-68 35%    
  Mar 06, 2024 47   Northwestern W 70-60 79%    
  Mar 10, 2024 39   @ Indiana W 70-67 58%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 5.3 7.3 6.2 3.7 1.3 27.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.1 6.5 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.1 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 5.0 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.7 4.0 5.4 7.1 9.2 10.6 11.7 12.4 11.3 9.8 6.9 3.8 1.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
19-1 97.4% 3.7    3.5 0.2
18-2 89.6% 6.2    5.2 1.0 0.0
17-3 73.9% 7.3    5.1 2.0 0.2 0.0
16-4 47.0% 5.3    2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0
15-5 22.9% 2.8    0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.5% 27.5 18.9 6.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.3% 100.0% 48.8% 51.2% 1.1 1.2 0.1 100.0%
19-1 3.8% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.9% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 1.4 4.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.8% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 1.7 4.7 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.3% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 2.3 2.9 4.3 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.4% 100.0% 16.6% 83.3% 3.1 1.2 3.2 3.7 2.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.7% 99.8% 14.0% 85.8% 4.2 0.3 1.2 2.8 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 10.6% 98.9% 10.8% 88.0% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.7%
12-8 9.2% 94.6% 8.6% 85.9% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.5 94.1%
11-9 7.1% 85.7% 7.8% 77.8% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.0 84.5%
10-10 5.4% 66.6% 7.8% 58.9% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8 63.8%
9-11 4.0% 36.1% 5.5% 30.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 32.4%
8-12 2.7% 16.1% 4.9% 11.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 11.8%
7-13 1.8% 5.9% 3.8% 2.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.1%
6-14 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 88.1% 16.3% 71.9% 4.1 18.2 15.3 11.8 9.8 7.8 6.6 5.6 4.4 3.4 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.9 85.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 92.8 7.2