Preseason Rankings
Michigan
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#48
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#163
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#53
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.2% 4.6% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 11.9% 13.1% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 21.7% 23.6% 7.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.8% 46.7% 22.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.1% 44.0% 19.7%
Average Seed 6.7 6.6 7.9
.500 or above 56.0% 59.6% 28.6%
.500 or above in Conference 43.8% 46.2% 25.7%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.6% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.8% 7.8% 16.4%
First Four5.1% 5.3% 3.8%
First Round41.3% 44.1% 20.2%
Second Round25.9% 27.8% 11.4%
Sweet Sixteen11.8% 12.7% 4.8%
Elite Eight5.1% 5.5% 2.0%
Final Four2.2% 2.4% 0.7%
Championship Game0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 24 - 38 - 13
Quad 33 - 111 - 14
Quad 44 - 015 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 170   UNC Asheville W 79-66 88%    
  Nov 10, 2023 212   Youngstown St. W 83-68 92%    
  Nov 13, 2023 44   St. John's L 79-80 48%    
  Nov 17, 2023 141   Long Beach St. W 85-74 84%    
  Nov 22, 2023 27   Memphis L 75-78 40%    
  Dec 02, 2023 35   @ Oregon L 69-74 35%    
  Dec 05, 2023 39   Indiana W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 10, 2023 42   @ Iowa L 76-80 37%    
  Dec 16, 2023 315   Eastern Michigan W 85-64 97%    
  Dec 19, 2023 36   Florida L 72-73 45%    
  Dec 29, 2023 271   McNeese St. W 82-63 95%    
  Jan 04, 2024 113   Minnesota W 74-65 78%    
  Jan 07, 2024 76   Penn St. W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 11, 2024 29   @ Maryland L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 15, 2024 38   Ohio St. W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 18, 2024 21   Illinois L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 23, 2024 2   @ Purdue L 63-75 16%    
  Jan 26, 2024 42   Iowa W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 30, 2024 5   @ Michigan St. L 64-74 20%    
  Feb 03, 2024 51   Rutgers W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 07, 2024 28   Wisconsin W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 10, 2024 67   @ Nebraska L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 13, 2024 21   @ Illinois L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 17, 2024 5   Michigan St. L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 22, 2024 47   @ Northwestern L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 25, 2024 2   Purdue L 66-72 32%    
  Feb 29, 2024 51   @ Rutgers L 66-69 41%    
  Mar 03, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. L 69-73 36%    
  Mar 10, 2024 67   Nebraska W 74-69 65%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.5 1.1 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.9 3.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.6 3.4 0.7 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.4 1.1 0.1 8.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.6 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.7 13th
14th 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 5.2 14th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.0 5.0 6.5 8.5 9.7 10.8 10.2 10.1 9.1 7.8 6.0 4.5 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 93.9% 0.4    0.3 0.0
17-3 81.8% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 53.3% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 23.4% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 41.1% 58.9% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.0% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 1.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.8% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 2.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.9% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 3.2 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.5% 99.9% 10.2% 89.7% 4.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 6.0% 99.0% 8.5% 90.5% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-8 7.8% 96.3% 6.5% 89.8% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.0%
11-9 9.1% 87.0% 5.5% 81.5% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 86.3%
10-10 10.1% 65.4% 4.3% 61.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 63.9%
9-11 10.2% 32.5% 3.3% 29.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 30.2%
8-12 10.8% 10.5% 2.9% 7.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7 7.8%
7-13 9.7% 3.2% 2.3% 0.9% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.3 0.9%
6-14 8.5% 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.4 0.1%
5-15 6.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.4
4-16 5.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.9
3-17 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.0
2-18 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
1-19 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 43.8% 4.5% 39.3% 6.7 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.0 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 56.2 41.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 95.8 4.2