Preseason Rankings
Oregon
Pac-12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#35
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.8#214
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.0% 4.1% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.9% 9.5% 2.4%
Top 4 Seed 16.6% 21.5% 7.8%
Top 6 Seed 27.7% 34.4% 15.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.0% 65.4% 41.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.1% 60.7% 37.7%
Average Seed 6.5 6.2 7.4
.500 or above 86.2% 92.0% 75.7%
.500 or above in Conference 69.5% 75.3% 59.2%
Conference Champion 11.9% 14.5% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 2.0% 5.4%
First Four5.0% 4.8% 5.3%
First Round54.5% 63.0% 39.3%
Second Round35.5% 42.4% 23.2%
Sweet Sixteen16.8% 20.7% 9.8%
Elite Eight8.0% 10.1% 4.3%
Final Four3.7% 4.7% 1.8%
Championship Game1.6% 2.0% 0.7%
National Champion0.7% 0.9% 0.3%

Next Game: Georgia (Neutral) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 6
Quad 25 - 39 - 9
Quad 36 - 115 - 10
Quad 45 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 73   Georgia W 73-69 64%    
  Nov 10, 2023 181   Montana W 75-60 92%    
  Nov 17, 2023 262   Tennessee St. W 85-65 97%    
  Nov 20, 2023 343   @ Florida A&M W 75-55 96%    
  Nov 24, 2023 144   Santa Clara W 79-69 81%    
  Dec 02, 2023 48   Michigan W 74-69 65%    
  Dec 09, 2023 155   UTEP W 75-61 88%    
  Dec 12, 2023 186   California Baptist W 74-59 91%    
  Dec 17, 2023 75   Syracuse W 74-70 64%    
  Dec 21, 2023 107   Kent St. W 75-65 81%    
  Dec 28, 2023 18   USC W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 30, 2023 19   UCLA W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 04, 2024 74   @ Washington W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 06, 2024 86   @ Washington St. W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 13, 2024 105   California W 70-60 81%    
  Jan 18, 2024 33   @ Colorado L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 21, 2024 62   @ Utah L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 25, 2024 65   Arizona St. W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 27, 2024 11   Arizona L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 01, 2024 18   @ USC L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 03, 2024 19   @ UCLA L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 08, 2024 74   Washington W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 10, 2024 86   Washington St. W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 17, 2024 118   @ Oregon St. W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 22, 2024 49   @ Stanford L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 24, 2024 105   @ California W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 28, 2024 118   Oregon St. W 71-60 83%    
  Mar 02, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 75-82 28%    
  Mar 07, 2024 33   Colorado W 73-70 58%    
  Mar 09, 2024 62   Utah W 71-65 68%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.1 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 11.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.6 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.4 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.6 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.6 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.0 5.7 6.9 8.4 10.1 10.5 10.7 10.0 9.2 7.3 5.3 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
18-2 95.9% 1.9    1.7 0.2
17-3 82.4% 3.0    2.3 0.7 0.0
16-4 58.5% 3.1    1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 27.9% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 7.5 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 44.2% 55.8% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 37.4% 62.6% 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 1.8 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.6% 99.9% 28.0% 71.9% 2.4 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 5.3% 99.8% 22.6% 77.2% 3.4 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 7.3% 99.2% 18.0% 81.2% 4.6 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
14-6 9.2% 97.1% 14.3% 82.8% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 96.7%
13-7 10.0% 90.8% 10.6% 80.2% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.9 89.7%
12-8 10.7% 77.6% 9.2% 68.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 0.7 0.1 2.4 75.4%
11-9 10.5% 58.2% 6.5% 51.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.4 55.3%
10-10 10.1% 35.5% 5.9% 29.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.5 31.5%
9-11 8.4% 15.2% 4.7% 10.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 11.0%
8-12 6.9% 5.1% 3.3% 1.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 1.9%
7-13 5.7% 3.3% 3.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.5
6-14 4.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
5-15 2.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
4-16 1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-17 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-18 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 57.0% 10.1% 46.9% 6.5 3.0 3.9 4.7 5.0 5.5 5.7 5.4 5.9 5.9 6.3 4.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 43.0 52.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 85.9 14.1