Preseason Rankings
Pac-12
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
11 Arizona 83.4%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 14 - 6 +15.4      +10.0 3 +5.4 45 78.9 9 0.0 1 0.0 1
18 USC 74.2%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +13.7      +7.1 22 +6.6 24 69.7 138 0.0 1 0.0 1
19 UCLA 69.7%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +13.3      +5.1 48 +8.2 10 65.9 237 0.0 1 0.0 1
33 Colorado 59.5%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +11.8      +5.3 44 +6.5 26 71.4 92 0.0 1 0.0 1
35 Oregon 57.0%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +11.3      +6.1 32 +5.2 46 66.8 214 0.0 1 0.0 1
49 Stanford 41.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 10 +9.7      +6.1 31 +3.5 76 65.3 260 0.0 1 0.0 1
62 Utah 36.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 10 +8.6      +3.2 82 +5.4 43 66.0 231 0.0 1 0.0 1
65 Arizona St. 34.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 11 +8.2      +2.9 91 +5.2 47 69.6 141 0.0 1 0.0 1
74 Washington 27.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +7.3      +3.4 77 +3.9 68 71.7 87 0.0 1 0.0 1
86 Washington St. 19.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 12 +6.0      +2.1 115 +3.9 67 62.4 323 0.0 1 0.0 1
105 California 10.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 6 - 14 +4.0      +0.6 152 +3.4 77 60.6 342 0.0 1 0.0 1
118 Oregon St. 7.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 6 - 14 +2.9      -0.1 174 +2.9 92 61.3 335 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 3.3 31.2 18.5 13.7 10.4 7.8 5.8 4.6 3.3 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.3
USC 4.0 21.6 16.7 14.4 11.5 9.6 7.4 6.3 4.7 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.6
UCLA 4.1 20.2 16.4 13.5 11.7 9.8 7.9 6.4 5.0 4.0 2.6 1.7 0.7
Colorado 4.7 13.9 13.7 13.1 12.0 10.8 9.5 7.9 6.2 5.2 3.9 2.5 1.3
Oregon 5.1 11.9 11.8 12.2 11.5 10.9 10.0 8.7 7.3 6.0 4.9 3.0 1.8
Stanford 5.9 7.6 9.3 9.9 10.3 10.7 10.5 9.8 9.2 7.9 6.5 5.0 3.1
Utah 6.5 4.9 6.7 8.0 8.9 9.8 10.8 10.4 10.5 10.1 8.6 7.1 4.2
Arizona St. 6.9 4.0 6.1 7.0 8.0 9.4 9.9 10.6 10.9 10.9 9.9 7.7 5.6
Washington 7.1 3.3 5.2 6.6 7.9 9.0 9.8 10.3 11.0 10.8 10.4 8.8 6.8
Washington St. 7.9 2.2 3.0 4.4 5.8 6.8 8.2 9.7 11.3 12.3 13.3 12.2 10.9
California 9.1 0.7 1.3 2.3 2.9 4.2 5.5 7.3 9.5 11.6 15.1 19.4 20.1
Oregon St. 9.5 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.6 4.5 6.0 8.4 10.8 14.9 20.0 26.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arizona 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.9 4.2 5.8 7.4 9.3 10.5 11.3 12.2 10.9 9.6 6.6 3.8 1.4
USC 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.2 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.6 11.0 11.5 10.3 8.8 6.6 4.5 2.1 0.7
UCLA 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.8 6.3 7.7 9.6 10.5 10.8 10.7 9.9 8.5 6.3 4.1 2.0 0.6
Colorado 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.2 7.6 9.3 10.4 10.9 10.8 9.5 8.2 6.8 4.5 2.4 1.1 0.3
Oregon 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.0 5.7 6.9 8.4 10.1 10.5 10.7 10.0 9.2 7.3 5.3 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2
Stanford 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.0 5.6 7.1 8.8 9.7 10.5 10.6 9.5 8.9 7.0 5.4 3.7 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1
Utah 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.8 5.8 7.0 9.1 9.8 10.6 10.9 9.8 8.5 6.7 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Arizona St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.8 4.5 6.4 8.1 9.7 10.4 10.4 10.2 9.3 7.9 6.1 4.8 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Washington 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.3 7.0 8.3 10.0 10.1 10.8 10.0 8.7 7.6 5.9 4.2 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
Washington St. 8 - 12 0.4 1.6 3.1 5.6 7.3 9.2 10.1 11.0 10.8 9.8 8.6 6.8 5.5 4.0 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
California 6 - 14 1.2 3.8 6.7 9.5 11.3 12.0 11.7 10.7 9.1 7.2 5.9 4.2 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 6 - 14 2.0 5.3 8.3 11.1 12.2 12.3 11.2 9.9 8.0 6.3 4.8 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 31.2% 22.9 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
USC 21.6% 14.7 5.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
UCLA 20.2% 13.7 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Colorado 13.9% 9.0 3.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon 11.9% 7.5 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stanford 7.6% 4.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Utah 4.9% 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Arizona St. 4.0% 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 3.3% 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 2.2% 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 0.7% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 83.4% 20.4% 63.0% 3   14.3 12.6 11.1 9.0 8.2 6.9 5.9 4.7 3.8 3.2 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 16.6 79.1%
USC 74.2% 15.2% 59.0% 5   7.6 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.2 6.6 6.0 5.5 4.9 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 25.8 69.6%
UCLA 69.7% 14.4% 55.2% 6   5.9 7.1 7.3 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.6 6.1 5.7 5.2 3.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 30.3 64.6%
Colorado 59.5% 10.5% 49.0% 8   3.4 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.7 6.0 6.5 4.4 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 40.5 54.7%
Oregon 57.0% 10.1% 46.9% 10   3.0 3.9 4.7 5.0 5.5 5.7 5.4 5.9 5.9 6.3 4.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 43.0 52.1%
Stanford 41.7% 7.0% 34.7% 1.2 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.6 4.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 58.3 37.3%
Utah 36.5% 5.9% 30.6% 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.7 4.8 4.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 63.5 32.5%
Arizona St. 34.6% 5.3% 29.3% 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.5 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 65.4 31.0%
Washington 27.8% 4.4% 23.4% 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.4 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 72.2 24.5%
Washington St. 19.0% 3.3% 15.7% 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.7 3.3 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 81.0 16.3%
California 10.7% 1.9% 8.7% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 89.3 8.9%
Oregon St. 7.3% 1.6% 5.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 92.7 5.8%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 83.4% 3.2% 81.9% 64.6% 39.3% 21.8% 11.8% 6.2% 3.2%
USC 74.2% 3.9% 72.3% 52.6% 28.7% 14.7% 7.4% 3.6% 1.7%
UCLA 69.7% 4.1% 67.8% 48.3% 25.8% 13.3% 6.5% 3.1% 1.5%
Colorado 59.5% 5.0% 56.8% 37.6% 18.3% 8.6% 4.0% 1.8% 0.7%
Oregon 57.0% 5.0% 54.5% 35.5% 16.8% 8.0% 3.7% 1.6% 0.7%
Stanford 41.7% 4.6% 39.3% 23.7% 10.2% 4.4% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%
Utah 36.5% 4.8% 34.1% 19.6% 8.1% 3.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Arizona St. 34.6% 4.4% 32.4% 18.4% 7.4% 3.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
Washington 27.8% 4.2% 25.6% 13.6% 4.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Washington St. 19.0% 3.4% 17.2% 8.7% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
California 10.7% 2.3% 9.5% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 7.3% 1.8% 6.3% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.2 0.0 0.7 6.0 20.2 33.1 26.6 10.9 2.2 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.0 0.1 1.2 8.5 24.5 33.8 22.7 7.9 1.3 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 99.5% 3.3 0.5 5.2 19.4 32.4 27.4 12.1 2.7 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 88.3% 1.6 11.7 35.0 34.3 15.2 3.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 61.1% 0.8 38.9 43.5 15.3 2.2 0.1 0.0
Final Four 35.0% 0.4 65.0 30.9 3.9 0.1
Final Game 18.0% 0.2 82.0 17.4 0.6
Champion 8.7% 0.1 91.3 8.7