Preseason Rankings
USC
Pac-12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#18
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.7#138
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 2.4% 0.6%
#1 Seed 7.6% 10.9% 3.4%
Top 2 Seed 16.1% 22.3% 8.0%
Top 4 Seed 32.2% 41.5% 20.0%
Top 6 Seed 47.0% 57.5% 33.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.2% 83.1% 62.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.6% 79.5% 57.5%
Average Seed 5.4 5.0 6.2
.500 or above 91.2% 95.9% 85.1%
.500 or above in Conference 82.7% 87.4% 76.5%
Conference Champion 21.6% 26.4% 15.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.5% 2.0%
First Four3.9% 3.3% 4.8%
First Round72.3% 81.5% 60.3%
Second Round52.6% 61.7% 40.8%
Sweet Sixteen28.7% 35.1% 20.3%
Elite Eight14.7% 18.8% 9.4%
Final Four7.4% 9.6% 4.4%
Championship Game3.6% 4.7% 2.1%
National Champion1.7% 2.4% 1.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Neutral) - 56.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 26 - 210 - 9
Quad 36 - 116 - 9
Quad 44 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 32   Kansas St. W 76-74 56%    
  Nov 09, 2023 254   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-54 98%    
  Nov 14, 2023 97   UC Irvine W 79-67 86%    
  Nov 19, 2023 185   Brown W 81-64 94%    
  Nov 23, 2023 66   Seton Hall W 73-67 69%    
  Nov 29, 2023 169   Eastern Washington W 83-67 93%    
  Dec 02, 2023 10   Gonzaga L 77-79 44%    
  Dec 10, 2023 141   Long Beach St. W 87-72 90%    
  Dec 17, 2023 23   @ Auburn L 72-74 42%    
  Dec 19, 2023 353   @ Alabama St. W 82-58 98%    
  Dec 28, 2023 35   @ Oregon L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 30, 2023 118   @ Oregon St. W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 03, 2024 105   California W 73-60 86%    
  Jan 06, 2024 49   Stanford W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 10, 2024 86   Washington St. W 73-62 82%    
  Jan 13, 2024 33   @ Colorado L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 17, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 77-82 35%    
  Jan 20, 2024 65   @ Arizona St. W 73-70 58%    
  Jan 27, 2024 19   UCLA W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 01, 2024 35   Oregon W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 03, 2024 118   Oregon St. W 74-60 87%    
  Feb 07, 2024 105   @ California W 70-63 71%    
  Feb 10, 2024 49   @ Stanford W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 15, 2024 62   Utah W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 17, 2024 33   Colorado W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 24, 2024 19   @ UCLA L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 29, 2024 86   @ Washington St. W 70-65 65%    
  Mar 02, 2024 74   @ Washington W 75-72 61%    
  Mar 07, 2024 65   Arizona St. W 76-67 76%    
  Mar 09, 2024 11   Arizona W 80-79 54%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.0 5.0 5.4 4.3 2.1 0.7 21.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.6 5.3 3.5 1.2 0.1 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.8 4.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.6 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 3.0 0.7 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.2 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.6 11.0 11.5 10.3 8.8 6.6 4.5 2.1 0.7 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.1    2.0 0.0
18-2 96.9% 4.3    3.8 0.5
17-3 82.2% 5.4    4.0 1.3 0.0
16-4 57.1% 5.0    2.9 1.9 0.3 0.0
15-5 28.8% 3.0    1.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.0% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 14.7 5.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 100.0% 48.5% 51.5% 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.1% 100.0% 42.8% 57.2% 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.5% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.6 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.6% 99.9% 29.1% 70.9% 2.2 1.9 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 8.8% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 3.0 1.0 2.4 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 10.3% 99.7% 20.0% 79.7% 4.2 0.3 1.1 2.3 2.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 11.5% 98.3% 16.4% 81.8% 5.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.5 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.9%
13-7 11.0% 93.2% 13.4% 79.8% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.7 92.2%
12-8 10.6% 84.1% 11.0% 73.1% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.7 82.1%
11-9 9.0% 66.7% 8.2% 58.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0 63.8%
10-10 7.6% 42.4% 6.6% 35.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 38.4%
9-11 6.1% 19.0% 4.8% 14.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 14.9%
8-12 4.2% 6.8% 4.3% 2.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9 2.6%
7-13 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 0.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.1%
6-14 1.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-16 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-17 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 74.2% 15.2% 59.0% 5.4 7.6 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.2 6.6 6.0 5.5 4.9 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 25.8 69.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.2