Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#254
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.9#347
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#313
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#176
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.0% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 15.1
.500 or above 23.5% 32.7% 12.4%
.500 or above in Conference 31.4% 38.3% 23.1%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.7% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.0% 9.5% 17.2%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.7%
First Round2.0% 2.7% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 63 - 12
Quad 48 - 510 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 226   Southern Utah W 70-69 55%    
  Nov 09, 2023 18   @ USC L 54-76 2%    
  Nov 13, 2023 105   @ California L 53-65 14%    
  Nov 20, 2023 252   Sacramento St. L 59-60 49%    
  Nov 28, 2023 10   @ Gonzaga L 58-81 2%    
  Dec 09, 2023 304   @ South Dakota L 63-64 49%    
  Dec 15, 2023 111   @ Fresno St. L 53-65 16%    
  Dec 19, 2023 304   South Dakota W 67-61 69%    
  Dec 28, 2023 241   @ UC San Diego L 62-66 37%    
  Dec 30, 2023 97   UC Irvine L 61-68 28%    
  Jan 04, 2024 142   Hawaii L 58-62 38%    
  Jan 11, 2024 150   @ UC Santa Barbara L 58-67 22%    
  Jan 13, 2024 173   @ UC Davis L 62-70 26%    
  Jan 18, 2024 202   UC Riverside L 62-63 49%    
  Jan 20, 2024 334   Cal Poly W 62-53 77%    
  Jan 25, 2024 316   @ Cal St. Northridge W 62-61 52%    
  Jan 27, 2024 161   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 57-66 24%    
  Feb 01, 2024 141   Long Beach St. L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 03, 2024 150   UC Santa Barbara L 61-64 40%    
  Feb 08, 2024 202   @ UC Riverside L 60-66 31%    
  Feb 10, 2024 161   Cal St. Fullerton L 60-63 42%    
  Feb 15, 2024 316   Cal St. Northridge W 65-58 71%    
  Feb 17, 2024 97   @ UC Irvine L 58-71 15%    
  Feb 22, 2024 141   @ Long Beach St. L 66-76 21%    
  Feb 24, 2024 173   UC Davis L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 29, 2024 241   UC San Diego W 65-63 57%    
  Mar 02, 2024 334   @ Cal Poly W 59-56 59%    
  Mar 10, 2024 142   @ Hawaii L 55-65 22%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.8 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.5 4.5 1.6 0.2 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 5.1 4.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 5.3 3.3 1.0 0.1 15.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.4 4.1 3.6 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 13.4 10th
11th 0.4 1.1 2.3 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.3 11th
Total 0.4 1.2 3.0 4.8 7.2 9.1 10.6 10.9 10.9 10.6 8.9 7.0 5.4 4.2 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 91.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 82.4% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-4 62.7% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 31.7% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 62.5% 60.0% 2.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3%
19-1 0.0% 40.7% 23.3% 17.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.7%
18-2 0.2% 34.9% 32.6% 2.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.4%
17-3 0.4% 23.8% 22.9% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2%
16-4 0.8% 19.3% 19.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-5 1.7% 14.9% 14.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
14-6 2.7% 11.8% 11.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4
13-7 4.2% 6.4% 6.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9
12-8 5.4% 4.3% 4.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.2
11-9 7.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.8
10-10 8.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.7
9-11 10.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.4
8-12 10.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.8
7-13 10.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.8
6-14 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.6
5-15 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.1
4-16 7.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.2
3-17 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
2-18 3.0% 3.0
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%