Preseason Rankings
South Dakota
Summit League
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#304
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#252
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#262
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#322
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 21.8% 30.8% 11.4%
.500 or above in Conference 34.3% 41.4% 26.1%
Conference Champion 3.6% 4.9% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 22.6% 17.0% 29.1%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.8%
First Round2.4% 3.6% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 53.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 49 - 810 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-76 53%    
  Nov 14, 2023 109   @ DePaul L 66-80 9%    
  Nov 17, 2023 351   VMI W 73-68 67%    
  Nov 26, 2023 166   Air Force L 63-68 32%    
  Dec 03, 2023 317   @ Western Illinois L 69-71 43%    
  Dec 09, 2023 254   Cal St. Bakersfield W 64-63 51%    
  Dec 16, 2023 97   @ UC Irvine L 63-79 9%    
  Dec 19, 2023 254   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 61-67 31%    
  Dec 21, 2023 227   @ San Diego L 70-77 26%    
  Dec 29, 2023 201   @ North Dakota St. L 67-76 22%    
  Dec 31, 2023 296   Nebraska Omaha W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 03, 2024 169   Eastern Washington L 71-76 34%    
  Jan 06, 2024 181   @ Montana L 63-73 20%    
  Jan 11, 2024 175   @ Oral Roberts L 70-81 19%    
  Jan 18, 2024 276   St. Thomas W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 20, 2024 151   South Dakota St. L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 25, 2024 307   @ Denver L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 27, 2024 286   @ UMKC L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 01, 2024 267   North Dakota W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 04, 2024 151   @ South Dakota St. L 65-77 16%    
  Feb 08, 2024 307   Denver W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 15, 2024 296   @ Nebraska Omaha L 71-75 39%    
  Feb 17, 2024 276   @ St. Thomas L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 22, 2024 286   UMKC W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 24, 2024 175   Oral Roberts L 73-78 36%    
  Feb 29, 2024 201   North Dakota St. L 70-73 40%    
  Mar 02, 2024 267   @ North Dakota L 69-74 34%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.3 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.2 4.6 1.0 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.9 4.7 1.0 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.1 4.8 0.9 0.0 14.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.4 5.8 4.0 0.8 0.0 15.1 8th
9th 0.8 2.8 4.6 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 15.3 9th
Total 0.8 2.9 5.6 8.2 10.5 12.5 13.1 12.1 10.7 8.5 6.2 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 96.4% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
13-3 74.3% 0.9    0.7 0.3 0.0
12-4 39.1% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-5 15.7% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 49.1% 49.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.2% 53.0% 51.1% 1.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9%
14-2 0.6% 35.8% 35.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-3 1.3% 26.4% 26.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
12-4 2.5% 13.8% 13.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.2
11-5 4.2% 9.3% 9.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 3.8
10-6 6.2% 7.9% 7.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.7
9-7 8.5% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.1
8-8 10.7% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.4
7-9 12.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 11.9
6-10 13.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.0
5-11 12.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.4
4-12 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.5
3-13 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.2
2-14 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.6
1-15 2.9% 2.9
0-16 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%